Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has issued a stark warning that former US President Donald Trump's latest move to impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba could precipitate a full-scale humanitarian crisis on the Caribbean island. This development comes as Cuba grapples with chronic fuel shortages, with estimates suggesting its oil reserves may only last between 15 and 20 days at current consumption rates.
Trump's Executive Order Escalates Pressure on Havana
Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, declaring a national emergency and establishing the legal framework for imposing significant tariffs on nations that continue to supply petroleum to Cuba. The White House justified this aggressive stance by citing Cuba's alleged connections to Russia, Hamas, and Hezbollah. While the official statement did not explicitly name Mexico, President Sheinbaum's administration has emerged as Cuba's primary oil supplier since 2025, surpassing traditional partners like Russia and Venezuela.
Sheinbaum Seeks Balance Between Solidarity and National Interest
In response to the tariff threat, President Sheinbaum stated that her government would urgently seek clarification from the US State Department while exploring alternative avenues to deliver humanitarian assistance to the Cuban population. "We will seek a way, without putting Mexico at risk, of course, but always seeking solidarity with the Cuban people," she affirmed during a press briefing on Friday.
Sheinbaum emphasised that these punitive tariffs could have devastating consequences, directly impacting hospitals, food distribution networks, and other essential services vital for Cuba's civilian population. The island is already experiencing increasingly severe electricity blackouts, with 12-hour daily power cuts becoming commonplace in Havana and other regions.
Cuban Leadership Condemns "Genocidal" US Policy
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez responded forcefully to the tariff announcement, accusing Trump of attempting to "suffocate" the island's economy through measures that reveal the "fascist, criminal, and genocidal nature" of certain US political factions. This diplomatic confrontation occurs against a backdrop of heightened tension following the US capture and extradition of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, a crucial ally for Havana, earlier this year.
Precarious Energy Situation and Regional Implications
According to recent analyses, Cuba's energy predicament has reached critical levels. The Financial Times reported that without immediate new oil deliveries, the country faces imminent sharp rationing. Energy expert Jorge Piñon from the University of Texas warned that if no crude oil or fuel shipments arrive within six to eight weeks, the Cuban government will confront a major crisis.
The tariff issue presents a complex diplomatic challenge for President Sheinbaum, who must navigate between demonstrating Mexico's reliability as a US trade and security partner while maintaining support from the left-wing faction of her Morena party. This delicate balancing act is further complicated by the Trump administration's renewed threats of unilateral military action against Mexican drug cartels, coinciding with renegotiations of the trillion-dollar USMCA trade agreement.
Humanitarian Consequences and International Response
On the ground in Cuba, the energy crisis is translating into severe daily hardships for ordinary citizens. Many families struggle to cook meals due to scarce gas canisters, increasingly resorting to charcoal-based cooking methods. US Chargé d'Affaires in Havana Mike Hammer acknowledged the escalating situation, remarking that while Cubans have long complained about an economic "blockade," they may now face an actual naval blockade, with reports suggesting possible US gunboat deployments in Cuban waters.
As diplomatic tensions intensify, the international community watches closely how this confrontation between US tariff policy, Mexican humanitarian concerns, and Cuba's desperate energy needs will unfold in the coming critical weeks.
