Pressure is mounting within Iran for an independent inquiry into the number of fatalities during recent protests, following a government announcement that it will oversee the publication of names of those killed. This highly unusual move, revealed on Thursday, aims to counter allegations of crimes against humanity and claims that up to 30,000 Iranians have lost their lives.
Discrepancies in Death Toll Figures Spark Controversy
The official death toll released by Iran's Martyr's Foundation stands at 3,117, which includes members of the security services. However, other sources assert that the actual number could be as high as 30,000, leading to widespread scepticism and demands for transparency. A protest in Tehran on 8 January highlighted the ongoing unrest, with images capturing the scale of public dissent.
Reformists Criticise Government's Transparency Efforts
Iranian reformists have expressed doubts about the government's planned identification process, labelling it insufficiently transparent and unlikely to resolve disputes over the true death count. Mohsen Borhani, a law professor at Tehran University and a government critic who has served time in Evin prison, acknowledged the proposal as a positive step but emphasised the need for greater openness.
Borhani suggested that the best approach to achieve transparency would involve creating a website where citizens could anonymously upload names and information about the deceased, with the site committed to verification. He noted that in past major protests, Iranians faced a complete lack of information regarding casualties, making this initiative a potential improvement.
Challenges and Distrust in Official Data
One significant obstacle is the risk of retribution for families willing to identify fatalities, particularly if they allege that security services were responsible. This fear contributes to the deep distrust between the state and society, as highlighted by reformist analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi, who argued that many Iranians no longer accept official data.
Zeidabadi proposed that the optimal solution would be to allow the United Nations to send an unimpeachable fact-finding team to Iran, ensuring credibility and preventing opposition forces from casting doubt on the findings. He questioned why the task should not be entrusted to a legitimate international body to enhance trust and accuracy.
Widespread Calls for Independent Investigation
The Reform Front, an alliance of reformist groups that supported the election of President Masoud Pezeshkian, has called for an independent committee to investigate what it terms an unprecedented disaster and provide a transparent report to the Iranian nation. Similarly, the Tehran teachers union issued a statement demanding the release of all detainees, describing the events as one of the bloodiest chapters of repression in contemporary Iranian history, with tens of thousands affected.
Reformist lawyer Ali Mojtahedzadeh stressed that the government must address the root causes of distrust by fostering a stronger civil society. In his first intervention, former president Hassan Rouhani pointed out that the protests, led by a generation raised under the Islamic Republic, underscore the need for major political changes, including the formation of political parties and an end to candidate filtering.
Detention and Legal Issues Compound the Crisis
Separately, an unofficial committee has been established to identify all individuals still in detention, as security services continue nationwide sweeps for protest ringleaders. While no official number exists for detainees, estimates suggest tens of thousands are being held, including many from working-class families who cannot afford bail.
Lawyers have reported that the majority of those arrested were born between 1980 and 1985 and served as the main breadwinners in their families, with initial sentences ranging from two to five years. The number of children under 18 in detention remains undisclosed, though teaching union websites are publishing photographs of verified child fatalities, and government officials have been photographed visiting detainees in an effort to show oversight.
As the situation unfolds, the call for an independent inquiry grows louder, reflecting a broader demand for accountability and truth in the face of conflicting narratives and profound societal divisions.
