The international community's chief representative in Bosnia has warned that the country is in imminent danger of breaking apart, with a 'very real' prospect of a return to conflict. In a report to the UN, Christian Schmidt, the high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, said that if Serb separatists carry out their threat to recreate their own army, splitting the national armed forces, more international peacekeepers would be needed to prevent a new war.
Schmidt's report, delivered to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, described the situation as 'the greatest existential threat of the postwar period'. He warned that Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik's actions, including threats to pull out of state-level institutions and reconstitute a Serb force, 'endanger not only the peace and stability of the country and the region, but – if unanswered by the international community – could lead to the undoing of the [Dayton peace] agreement itself'.
Dodik has threatened to force the Bosnian army to withdraw from the Republika Srpska, the Serb half of Bosnia, by surrounding its barracks. He claimed to have 'friends' who would support the Serb cause, presumed to be Serbia and Russia. Bosnian Serb police recently conducted 'counter-terrorist' exercises on Mount Jahorina, from where Serb forces bombarded Sarajevo during the 1992-95 siege.
Schmidt warned that clashes between Bosnian national law enforcement and Bosnian Serb police were possible, and that if the armed forces splinter, the international military presence would need reassessment. The UN Security Council is set to vote on renewing the mandate for the EU peacekeeping force (Eufor) and Nato headquarters, but Russia has threatened to block the resolution unless all references to the high representative are removed, potentially undermining Schmidt's authority.
Kurt Bassuener of the Democratization Policy Council said that while legally the removal of references may not undercut the high representative, politically it 'sure as hell does'. There is little appetite in the EU to reinforce the 700-strong Eufor force, and some member states, particularly Hungary, are supportive of Dodik. Bassuener suggested Dodik is willing to gamble on creating new facts on the ground rapidly, counting on confusion and delay in Sarajevo and the international community.
