Scotland's population is projected to decline earlier than previously expected, driven by a drop in migration from record highs, statisticians have announced. According to the National Records of Scotland (NRS), the population will peak at 5.56 million in mid-2033, before falling to an estimated 5.47 million by mid-2049.
Shift from Previous Forecasts
This marks a significant revision from last year's projections, which anticipated annual increases reaching 5.78 million by mid-2047. The trend also diverges from the rest of the UK, where migration is expected to boost the population to 72.5 million by mid-2054. While the UK's total population will grow by 4.5% by mid-2049, Scotland's will shrink by 1.3%.
Reasons Behind the Decline
Andrew White, head of population and migration statistics at NRS, explained: "Our latest projections are lower than the last set of figures. This is mainly driven by migration falling from unusually high levels. While we continue to project more people moving to Scotland than leaving, we now anticipate these levels to be too low to completely offset the gap between deaths and births. Scotland has had more deaths than births since 2015."
Net migration surged recently, particularly from abroad, but has since dropped. In 2023, 63,500 people moved to Scotland from abroad, with 13,900 from the rest of the UK. In 2024, these numbers fell to 42,600 and 13,800 respectively. By 2049, NRS forecasts around 10,400 arrivals from the rest of the UK and 11,500 from abroad.
Demographic Changes
Over the next 25 years, more people are expected to move to Scotland than leave, but net migration will not fully counterbalance the natural decrease. The demographic composition is also shifting. By mid-2047, the number of Scots aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 300,000, while the number of children is expected to fall by nearly 166,000 and young adults by more than 157,000.
Consequently, the working-age population share is set to decline slightly, while the pension-age population share rises by about three per cent.
UK-Wide Context
Across the UK, the population is projected to reach 71 million by 2034. The Office for National Statistics estimates net migration will add 2.2 million to the UK population in the decade to mid-2034, underscoring the contrasting demographic trends between Scotland and the rest of the country.
