Britain needs a second, fully independent nuclear weapons system to bolster its deterrent against Russia, according to a leading expert and a new report from the Policy Exchange think tank's nuclear enterprise commission. The recommendation comes amid growing uncertainty about the United States' commitment to NATO under President Trump.
Second System to Reduce Reliance on US
Professor Wyn Bowen of King's College London argues in a new work that while the UK is right to purchase 12 F-35A aircraft, these will use US nuclear weapons and be subject to a de facto American veto, limiting Britain's ability to act independently in a crisis. A second weapons system would eliminate future nuclear reliance on the United States and strengthen the UK's role as a separate centre of decision-making.
Prof Bowen stated: “Additional systems would bolster the UK’s role as a separate centre of decision-making and underpin NATO’s nuclear security in the event that the US is perceived, for whatever reason, as being unable to take the lead in a future European nuclear crisis.”
Trident Effectiveness Questioned
Further research from Policy Exchange highlights concerns that the effectiveness of Trident as a deterrent may be reduced if Russia and China develop new dome-style anti-missile systems capable of blocking incoming missiles. Experts are increasingly considering how the UK and European allies could respond without US support in a nuclear crisis.
Deep anxieties about President Trump’s commitment to NATO are a key driver behind the push for European states to radically strengthen their armed forces. Prof Bowen suggested the US may be “unable or unwilling to act, either for domestic political or broader, strategic reasons, such as an unwillingness to escalate a European conflict to prevent being overstretched in the Pacific.”
Fiscal Constraints
However, Prof Bowen acknowledged that “with the United Kingdom in a precarious fiscal position, the contours of any future nuclear capability will be heavily conditioned and constrained by what the government can afford.”
Government Response
An MOD spokesperson said: “This Government has absolute confidence in the credibility and effectiveness of the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent. It protects us every moment of every day. As we face an increasingly volatile world, our nuclear deterrent is more important than ever.”
The spokesperson added: “Following the Strategic Defence Review, we are investing £15 billion in the UK’s sovereign nuclear warhead programme, procuring 12 nuclear capable F35-As, and modernising our infrastructure. We are a leader in the Alliance – committing our nuclear deterrent in full to the defence of NATO, and we will join NATO’s Dual Capable Aircraft mission, keeping Britain safe at home and strong abroad.”
Political Reactions
Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge said: “I wrote back in May 2025 for the Express that we needed to make our nuclear deterrent more flexible and resilient, including alternative launch methods to the submarines. This would enable us to have more answers on the escalatory ladder, if Putin threatened us and our allies with tactical nuclear weapons. So when Labour said they would join the NATO dual capable alliance, including new F35A fighters to carry US air launched nuclear weapons, I supported the announcement. But this may now be at risk from Labour’s total failure to fund the defence investment plan, which is why Kemi and I have offered to work with the Government in the national interest, to cut welfare and properly fund defence.”
