Fears of a wider conflict are mounting after Estonia reported that Russian forces conducted live-fire exercises for the first time near its border, a move described as “unusual” and potentially provocative. Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said the Kremlin carried out the drills on Lake Peipus, which straddles the border between Estonia and Russia, on July 9 without notifying Estonian authorities.
Unprecedented Russian Military Activity
“Russia has not previously conducted weapons exercises on Lake Peipus. In that sense, this is something new,” Pevkur stated. “They were firing at a moving target on the water.” The live-fire operation comes amid broader concerns that Moscow is preparing to test NATO’s resolve, possibly through a false-flag attack.
The United States has warned Poland that Russia may use drones falsely identified as Ukrainian to stage a provocation, which could serve as a pretext for a counter-strike against a NATO member. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda also revealed intelligence suggesting Russia is plotting attacks on his country’s critical infrastructure, including the national power grid.
Baltic Leaders Sound Alarm
At a meeting with his Latvian counterpart, President Nauseda said: “I cannot deny that we have such information and that it concerns limited kinetic operations likely targeting critical infrastructure.” He noted that authorities are monitoring risks to energy and transport systems, including facilities supporting Lithuania’s connection to the European electricity grid.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs warned that as Ukraine becomes more effective at pressuring Russia, Moscow might respond with provocations against NATO’s eastern flank, potentially triggering Article 5—the collective defence clause. “Even without a total Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5 and response mechanisms at the Alliance and European Union levels,” Rinkēvičs said. “The next few months, or even the next 12 months, will be crucial for Baltic security.”
Russian Denials and Counterclaims
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the warnings as a “fresh batch of bugaboos intended to continue the brainwashing and prepare the population for further militarisation.” He argued that NATO is using the claims as a pretext to move military infrastructure into the Baltic states. Russia has also denied any plans to attack Baltic infrastructure.
Despite Russian denials, the three Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—along with Poland have strengthened security around key transport and energy infrastructure. They cite a long history of Russian hybrid attacks, which have intensified since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022.
Recent Incidents and Regional Strain
On July 15-16, Poland intercepted Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea conducting surveillance of Poland’s air defence systems, though they remained outside Polish territorial waters. The European Union also reported that Russia’s FSB Center 16 conducted cyberespionage and sabotage against European defence industries and critical infrastructure, including a December attack on a Polish combined heat and power plant supplying heat to nearly 500,000 customers.
A report from the International Institute of Strategic Studies think tank indicated that Russia likely used shadow ships to launch drones over Europe, disrupting civilian aviation between 2024 and 2026. The Baltic region has also faced stray Ukrainian drones as Ukraine ramped up attacks on Baltic Sea ports used for Russian energy exports. In mid-May, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa resigned over her government’s handling of multiple stray drone incidents. In late May, for the first time in a NATO and EU capital, Lithuanians sheltered in underground parking garages in Vilnius as authorities warned of unidentified drone activity.
