President Alexander Stubb of Finland has said a ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely before the spring, and urged European allies to maintain their support for Kyiv despite a corruption scandal engulfing the Ukrainian leadership. Stubb told the Associated Press that European nations would need 'sisu' – a Finnish term for endurance, resilience and grit – to withstand the winter amid Russian hybrid attacks and an information war across the continent.
Stubb, whose country shares a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia and lost territory to Moscow after two wars in the 1940s, acts as a key European interlocutor between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He said he leverages his good relationship with Trump – they have played golf and speak regularly – to argue for Ukraine, noting that even if Trump accepts 'one out of 10 ideas, that’s good.'
Stubb urged Zelenskyy to deal quickly with allegations of kickbacks and embezzlement, warning that the scandal benefits Russia. He also called on European leaders to boost financial and military support for Ukraine, which faces creeping Russian gains on the battlefield. 'I’m not very optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or the beginning of peace negotiations, at least this year,' Stubb said, adding it would be good to 'get something going' by March.
The Finnish president outlined three key issues for a ceasefire: security guarantees for Ukraine, rebuilding its economy, and addressing territorial claims. He said Trump and European leaders must maximise pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to change his strategic thinking, as Putin 'basically wants to deny the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.' Stubb suggested using frozen Russian assets held in Europe as collateral to fund Ukraine and increasing military pressure on Moscow.
Stubb praised Trump for sanctioning Russian energy firms Lukoil and Rosneft in October but argued more must be done to give Ukraine the capability to strike Russia's military and defence industry. He indicated that Ukraine is still negotiating with the US for more firepower after Trump denied a request for long-range Tomahawk missiles. Stubb also commented on Trump's cancelled meeting with Putin, calling it a strategic mistake by the Russians, who 'blew' their opportunity.
