Britain must urgently prepare for the very real possibility of a major international conflict within the next five years, according to a stark warning from former MI5 director general Lord Jonathan Evans.
Grave Assessment from Former Security Chief
In a sobering intervention that demands Whitehall's immediate attention, Lord Evans declared that the UK faces a "high probability" of being drawn into significant state-on-state conflict before the decade's end. The former head of Britain's domestic security service, who led MI5 from 2007 to 2013, delivered his chilling assessment during a parliamentary defence committee hearing.
"We need to think about the potential for state-on-state conflict," Evans stated unequivocally. "The lessons of the last few years are that the probability of that is higher than it has been probably for the whole of my adult life."
The Growing Threat Landscape
The security expert pointed to multiple escalating threats that have fundamentally altered Britain's security environment:
- Russia's ongoing aggression in Ukraine and increasing hostility toward NATO nations
- China's rapid military expansion and growing global ambitions
- Persistent cyber warfare campaigns targeting critical national infrastructure
- Hybrid threats combining conventional military power with economic coercion and disinformation
Evans emphasised that the traditional peace Britain has enjoyed since the Cold War's conclusion can no longer be taken for granted. The security landscape has deteriorated dramatically, requiring a fundamental shift in defence planning and spending.
Urgent Call for Defence Investment
The former intelligence chief joined growing calls for the government to significantly increase defence spending beyond the current 2% of GDP target. His warning comes as defence secretary Grant Shapps recently declared that the world has moved from a "post-war to pre-war world."
"We need to recognise that the level of threat that we're facing is of a different order of magnitude to what we've been used to," Evans told MPs, highlighting that current defence planning assumptions may be dangerously outdated.
Expert Consensus on Growing Dangers
Lord Evans's alarming assessment aligns with concerns raised by other senior security figures:
- General Sir Patrick Sanders, head of the British Army, has warned that Britain needs a "citizen army" ready to fight any future war
- Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, has highlighted the increasing boldness of hostile states
- Multiple NATO leaders have pointed to a narrowing "window of opportunity" to prepare for potential conflicts
The convergence of expert opinion suggests Britain faces its most dangerous security environment in decades, requiring immediate and substantial investment in military capability and national resilience.
As geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, Lord Evans's warning serves as a sobering reminder that the era of great power competition has returned with alarming speed, demanding urgent action from policymakers and military planners alike.
