Australia's Labor government will commit an additional A$53bn to defence over the next decade, according to a new national defence strategy to be unveiled by Defence Minister Richard Marles on Thursday. The integrated investment programme will add A$14bn to the current budget over the next four years, but the increase still leaves Australia short of the 3.5% of GDP spending target demanded by President Donald Trump.
Under current plans, Australian defence spending is on track for about 2.03% of GDP, rising to roughly 2.3-2.4% by 2033. Mr Marles is expected to tell the National Press Club in Canberra that Australia faces its most complex and threatening strategic circumstances since the Second World War, with more countries involved in conflict than at any time since 1945.
The additional spending is set to be a key feature of the 12 May federal budget, alongside tax reform and slower growth in the National Disability Insurance Scheme. The government intends to pursue "every avenue" of increasing capability quickly, including new off-budget programmes that use private capital for major projects - an approach experts warn could obscure the true cost of government initiatives.
Labor is already committed to at least A$368bn on the Aukus nuclear submarine agreement with the US and Britain. The strategy also includes a major upgrade of the Henderson defence precinct in Western Australia, with up to A$25bn expected over the next decade, partly from private investment. A A$12bn "downpayment" on the shipbuilding facility was announced in September.
Mr Marles will argue that long-held assumptions about Australia's security - such as geographic isolation and comparative military superiority in the Indo-Pacific - are no longer valid. He will cite intensifying competition between China and the US, rapid military modernisation in the region, and the erosion of international norms. The strategy also earmarks between A$2bn and A$5bn in additional spending on drones, bringing total investment in uncrewed and autonomous capabilities to A$12bn-A$15bn over the decade.
Shadow defence minister James Paterson accused the government of "accounting tricks", saying the inclusion of items such as military pensions as defence spending does not make Australians safer. He called for real increases in defence spending to put "tangible capability" into the hands of war fighters, citing lessons from Ukraine and Iran. The government separately aims to cut NDIS spending growth to between 5% and 6%, down from about 10.3% last year.
