Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a stark warning from his own political history: a failure to be bold on Brexit and Europe could open the door for challengers within his own party. The internal dynamics echo a pivotal moment from 2018, when Starmer, then the shadow Brexit secretary, electrified the Labour conference with a single line that defied the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn.
The Ghost of Conferences Past
Seven years ago, a brief departure from his script transformed Keir Starmer's political trajectory. Speaking at the 2018 Labour conference, he declared, "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option." The statement triggered wild cheers and a standing ovation, marking a direct challenge to Corbyn's strategy of prioritising Leave voters and showcasing Starmer as a figure willing to stand up for the party's pro-European base.
That moment of risk-taking contrasts sharply with his approach as Prime Minister. Upon succeeding Corbyn in 2020, Starmer swiftly moved to declare the Brexit debate settled. In the recent election campaign, he emphasised manifesto "red lines" ruling out re-joining the EU, the single market, or a customs union. His strategy has focused on winning over Brexit-supporting voters in key constituencies, despite evidence that public opinion on Europe has shifted.
The Rattling Lid on Europe
Now, as Prime Minister, Starmer confronts a new European landscape. While Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics it once was, the lid sealed for five years is beginning to rattle. Both Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have intensified their criticism of the economic damage caused by leaving the EU, using it as a potent weapon against political opponents like Nigel Farage.
The scale of that damage is significant. Estimates suggest the UK economy is now between 6% and 8% smaller than if it had remained in the EU. This dwarfs the marginal benefits of Starmer's so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer. Within government, there is active debate about going further. Chancellor Reeves is reportedly trying to overcome Home Office resistance to a more expansive youth mobility scheme with the EU.
Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy has spoken openly about the "self-evident" benefits of a customs union, and a dozen Labour MPs recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on the issue. Despite this, Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister for European relations, insists the government's red lines remain firm.
Internal Pressure and Geopolitical Fears
The Prime Minister's caution appears rooted in several factors. Firstly, his government is actively de-aligning from EU rules in areas like environmental policy, making a customs union technically more difficult. Secondly, failed talks over joining the EU's new defence fund have convinced some UK negotiators that Brussels is more interested in proving Brexit a failure than offering Britain special deals.
A third, and perhaps most significant, factor is geopolitical. Downing Street is wary that moving closer to Europe could destabilise relations with the United States, particularly regarding crucial military support for Ukraine and NATO. This concern has been amplified by the bizarre new US national security strategy document, welcomed by the Kremlin, which makes alarming claims about Europe and contains only a single, troubling reference to Britain.
This position may become untenable if Donald Trump seeks to export his MAGA ideology to the UK, especially as Starmer has vowed to fight right-wing populism. "Given the febrile state of Westminster politics," one source noted, there might be a new US president—or even a new Labour leader—by the next election.
The Leadership Question Looms
The political danger for Starmer is clear. By ruling out meaningful steps towards a closer EU relationship, he cedes ground to potential rivals. Figures like Health Secretary Wes Streeting, widely seen as a future leadership candidate, are among ministers pushing for a more ambitious European policy. Aides to Deputy Leader Angela Rayner, another probable contender, are carefully avoiding comment to avoid "escalating unhelpful speculation."
The lesson from 2018 is that a few well-chosen words can redefine a political career. Starmer has always claimed his conference speech was not a leadership pitch but an attempt to keep options open. He once favoured a "bespoke customs union deal"—the kind he now appears to oppose. The Prime Minister has options for a bolder offer on Europe that he would be prudent not to rule out. The question is whether he will prise them open himself, or wait for a rival to make them their own.
