The Makerfield by-election could have been a historic moment for Reform UK and its leader, Nigel Farage. Winning there would have demonstrated Reform's momentum in British politics and plunged Labour into despair, as many Labour MPs viewed Andy Burnham, their Makerfield candidate, as their last best hope to save the party. It remains to be seen whether Mr Burnham will become Labour leader and Prime Minister, or if he will succeed in the role. If he proves a flop, Labour MPs may regret their faith in him. But many would have been devastated had he lost.
The Split That Benefits Labour
As seen in Makerfield, the division between Reform UK and Restore Britain only aids Labour. Reform can beat Labour in the north west, as they did in Runcorn and Helsby in a May by-election not far from Makerfield. But this time, Reform's campaign was hindered by a rival campaign from Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe. Restore had no chance of winning but seemed content to prevent Reform's victory.
Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe, a former Reform MP, have become bitter enemies. Officially, their parties are very different. Mr Lowe believes Reform has been captured by the establishment and that Mr Farage has gone soft. But in truth, they are similar, even sharing similar names.
The Stakes for the Next General Election
Restore plans to stand candidates across the country at the next general election. However, Mr Farage has a real chance of becoming Prime Minister, while Rupert Lowe does not. Restore could take enough votes from Reform to give Labour a small chance of clinging to power. The best course for both leaders is to resolve their differences, call a truce, and stop fighting each other.
