Burnham's Energy Dilemma
Andy Burnham is about to face a furious Labour civil war as the energy crisis explodes. A key challenge for the next prime minister is ensuring Russia cannot plunge Britain into darkness, but Burnham must decide whether to challenge Labour on net zero. The former Mayor of Greater Manchester, who recently nominated himself for the Labour leadership, acknowledged that “it is all starting to feel very real.” In a major essay in the Times, he sought to reassure the nation that “keeping people safe” will be his “first priority,” recognising “climate and energy security” as two key challenges.
Energy Security vs. Net Zero
The transformation of Russia into a direct security threat has forced the UK to wake up to risks of depending on imported energy. There is the frightening potential of gas pipelines, subsea electricity interconnectors, and LNG shipments being attacked in a time of war. Britain’s punishingly high energy prices are also a brake on growth, holding back a manufacturing revival and making the UK an unattractive location for energy-guzzling data centres.
Political Hazards
Burnham is keenly aware of these challenges and the political hazards. On the same day he celebrated winning the Makerfield by-election, the Conservatives snatched from the SNP the erstwhile Labour seat of Aberdeen South by making the by-election a referendum on the future of North Sea oil and gas. Labour came into power with a manifesto pledge not to “issue new licences to explore new fields,” but Reform UK and the Conservatives argue it is idiotic to run down Scotland’s North Sea energy sector while importing energy from Norway.
Open Mind on Drilling
Burnham has said he has “something of an open mind” on North Sea drilling, but a change of policy would open up warfare within Labour. The recent King’s Speech recommitted the Government to not issuing new licences to explore new fields. A radical change of direction would delight trade unionists who want to preserve well-paid jobs in oil and gas and be welcomed by business leaders and lobby groups that argue Britain is missing out on tax revenues. But Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband – a leading contender to be Burnham’s Chancellor – has made the push to clean energy a personal crusade.
Competition from Greens and Voters
Labour still faces significant competition on the Left from the Greens, and Burnham will not want to look weak on climate change. But he also knows that floating voters will not give Labour a second chance at the next election if energy costs climb yet higher and the country looks even more vulnerable to its foes. At the very least, there will be hopes he will wholeheartedly support gas extraction from the Jackdaw field, east of Aberdeen. Champions of extraction claim it could meet 6% of the country’s gas needs and warn of the risk of shortages in the winter. The industry also wants the windfall tax replaced with a new pricing mechanism. If he fails to deliver on this in the autumn Budget, he can expect cross-party claims he is consigning Scotland’s economy to swift decline.
Future Prospects
Burnham would love it if scientists and engineers unlock plentiful and affordable supplies of clean energy during his time in Number 10. But if he presides over successive winter heating crises, his prospects for staying in post may melt away.
