Hospitals across the UK are bracing for a once-in-a-decade flu surge, driven by a mutated strain of the virus that may be more transmissible than usual. The new variant, a descendant of the H3N2 subtype, has become dominant and triggered an early start to the flu season, raising concerns about a wave of hospital admissions, particularly among the elderly.
Scientists first detected the mutated virus in June, and genetic analysis shows it evolved through antigenic drift. It is linked to Australia's worst flu season on record, which saw over 400,000 lab-confirmed cases. In the UK, the strain's R value is estimated at 1.4, higher than the typical 1.1-1.2, suggesting increased transmissibility.
NHS managers are ramping up vaccination efforts, expanding same-day emergency care, and treating more patients in the community to reduce hospital strain. This comes as resident doctors in England continue a five-day strike over pay, prompting contingency plans involving consultants and extra shifts.
Early data from the UK Health Security Agency indicates that current vaccines are less effective at preventing infection from the mutated strain but still offer good protection against severe disease. Vaccine effectiveness against hospital attendance is 70-75% in children and 30-40% in adults. However, uptake remains low, with less than a third of people with long-term health conditions vaccinated.
Health officials urge all eligible individuals to get vaccinated and take precautions. Age UK's Caroline Abrahams emphasized the importance of vaccination for older people, while Dr Antonia Ho of the University of Glasgow advised considering paid vaccines and lateral flow tests. Although H3N2 can cause severe seasons, it is not inevitable; the 2003-24 season saw 12,000 flu deaths in England and Wales, at the lower end of the typical range.
