The National Health Service is preparing for what could be Britain's most severe flu season in history, with hospitals anticipating a record-breaking surge in cases as soon as next week. Health leaders have issued a stark warning that the service is facing a 'national' crisis, with bed occupancy by flu patients already at unprecedented levels for this time of year and no peak yet in sight.
Unprecedented Pressure on Hospitals
Speaking at an NHS England board meeting on Thursday, Chief Executive Sir Jim Mackey revealed the alarming scale of the impending crisis. He stated that while there are currently around 2,000 flu patients occupying hospital beds, this number is projected to quadruple to 8,000 next week. This would far surpass the previous historic high of 5,408 patients recorded in January of a previous year.
The first official NHS winter situation report for this season shows an average of 1,717 flu patients in hospital beds each day last week, with 69 of those in critical care. This figure is 56% higher than the same week last year and a staggering ten times higher than two years ago. Professor Julian Redhead, NHS national medical director for urgent and emergency care, confirmed the severity, stating: 'Cases are incredibly high for this time of year and there is no peak in sight yet.'
Strike Action and a 'Nastier' Virus Compound Crisis
The looming health emergency is set to collide with significant industrial action, further straining an already overstretched system. Sir Jim Mackey branded the upcoming five-day strike by resident doctors, due to begin at 7am on December 17, as 'cruel and calculated', warning it is intended to cause 'mayhem' at a perilous time. The British Medical Association is pursuing a further 26% pay rise on top of increases received over the past three years.
Compounding the problem is the dominant flu strain circulating this season. Experts identify it as H3N2, a variant known for causing more severe illness. Professor Nicola Lewis, Director of the World Influenza Centre at the Francis Crick Institute, explained: 'We haven't seen a virus like this for a while, these dynamics are unusual. H3 is always a hotter virus, it's a nastier virus, it's more impactful on the population.'
UK Health Security Agency data shows laboratory-confirmed flu cases in England surged from 11.6% to 17.1% in just one week, largely driven by a spike in school-aged children. In Scotland, cases rose 45% week-on-week.
National Call for Vaccination as Services Strain
Health officials are issuing an urgent plea for eligible individuals to get vaccinated. Professor Redhead emphasised: 'With just a couple of weeks left to ensure maximum immunity from flu for Christmas Day, I urge anyone eligible to come forward to get their jab.' Latest figures show about 16.9 million flu vaccinations had been delivered by November 30, 400,000 more than last year.
The strain is evident across the system. The London Ambulance Service reported its three busiest days of the year consecutively, with a 20% increase in calls related to breathing difficulties. Additionally, three in ten patients arriving by ambulance waited at least 30 minutes to be handed over to A&E teams last week.
Rory Deighton of the NHS Confederation warned: 'It is deeply worrying that against this backdrop of mounting pressures the NHS will also have to mitigate the disruption of further strikes.' With the crisis escalating and no peak imminent, the coming weeks will test the resilience of the health service to its limits.
