Scotland is confronting its most severe influenza outbreak in years, with a powerful mutant strain fuelling a dramatic surge in infections and hospital admissions that is piling immense pressure on the National Health Service.
Mutant Strain Drives Unprecedented Early Surge
Public Health Scotland has confirmed the country is now experiencing "medium" levels of flu activity, the earliest point this threshold has been reached in at least 15 years. The crisis is being driven by a mutated, or "drifted," version of the H3N2 seasonal influenza virus, known for causing more severe illness, particularly in older adults.
Laboratory-confirmed cases more than doubled in a single week, jumping from 845 to 1,759 between November 24 and 30. This drifted H3N2 strain now accounts for 96.7% of all subtyped flu samples detected north of the border.
Hospitalisations and Deaths Climb Sharply
The human impact of the viral surge is stark. New figures reveal hospital admissions due to influenza soared by 70% week-on-week, rising from 426 to 724. While cases are prevalent among younger people, the highest proportion of those hospitalised are in the 75+ age group, making up 24.3% of admissions.
Provisional data from National Records of Scotland paints an equally alarming picture regarding fatalities. Last week, there were 17 deaths where flu was the underlying cause and 21 where it was mentioned on the death certificate. This represents a significant increase, as numbers for the same week in recent years have remained in single figures.
The strain on individual hospitals is severe. At Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, one in every 35 beds is occupied by an influenza patient. NHS Grampian reported having 560% more people with the virus than at the same time last year.
NHS Braces for "Extremely Challenging" Weeks Ahead
Health leaders have issued stark warnings about the NHS's capacity to cope. Dr Sandesh Gulhane, Scottish Conservative health spokesman, stated "Scotland is in the grip of the worst flu crisis in years and our NHS is woefully unprepared for the storm ahead."
Dr Iain Morrison, Chair of BMA Scotland's GP Committee, echoed these concerns, calling the situation "very concerning." He warned that the weeks ahead "could prove extremely challenging for the NHS," noting flu has arrived much earlier than the typical January or February peak.
In response, hospitals across Scotland have reintroduced pandemic-style measures, including asking patients and staff to wear facemasks, applying visiting restrictions, and urging people to stay away from healthcare settings unless necessary.
Urgent Calls for Vaccination as Key Defence
Amid the crisis, public health officials are making renewed pleas for eligible Scots to get vaccinated. While there have been reports the current flu vaccine may be less effective against this specific drifted strain, experts stress it still offers crucial protection.
Chris Provan, chair of the Royal College of GPs in Scotland, emphasised that vaccination "can reduce the severity of illness, helping to prevent hospitalisation." Dr Kimberly Marsh of Public Health Scotland reiterated that "vaccination remains the best way to help protect yourself against serious illness from flu."
The Scottish Government reports that, as of 30 November, over 1.5 million flu vaccinations have been delivered this season. Health Secretary Neil Gray defended the government's preparedness, citing a £20 million allocation for health board initiatives to increase social care capacity and relieve pressure on acute services.
