Andy Burnham's national care service, often described as an NHS2, may not be what it appears, and the Prime Minister could have set a trap for himself, according to political commentator Jonathan Saxty.
Most people hearing about Burnham's national care service likely imagine an NHS-style system free at the point of use and covering almost everything. However, if the rest of the UK follows the Scottish model, accommodation costs will be excluded, which represents about 50% of the cost of old-age care.
Funding and immigration concerns
Burnham's reform of the pension triple lock may release around £8bn a year for such a scheme. Yet a wholesale all-encompassing plan would require significant tax rises and possibly spending cuts to policing and defence, neither of which can be afforded.
The plan could also require a huge increase in social care visas. The commentator argues there is no chance the Labour government would train British care staff instead of recruiting from abroad. Labour is unlikely to adopt the approach of Singapore or Japan, bringing guest workers in on time-limited permits, but rather immigrants eligible for settlement quickly.
Potential 'Burnhamwave' and delays
The Tories gave the country the 'Boriswave' immigrants, now becoming eligible for permanent residency. Saxty warns of a 'Burnhamwave' repeating the pattern.
While the social care system needs fixing and the Tories did nothing about it, Saxty credits Burnham for at least examining the problem. He advises reading the small print, as this NHS2 is not what it seems and will not cover what people assume.
Burnham's supporters will not want to wait, but the PM says nothing can be done until after the next election. The odds of an early election have gone up, raising the question of whether a crisis can wait until 2029.
