The world's largest oil companies are planning to increase production by an average of 14% between 2024 and 2030, according to data from the TPI Global Climate Transition Centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). This expansion comes despite overwhelming scientific consensus that burning fossil fuels drives the climate crisis, as the northern hemisphere experiences record-breaking heatwaves, heatstroke hospitalizations, and wildfires.
Perverse Incentives Drive Fossil Fuel Expansion
Oil, gas, and coal companies already bear a disproportionate share of blame for climate change yet have financial incentives to further disrupt the climate. These perverse incentives will continue unless government subsidies are replaced with windfall taxes, experts say. The latest attribution study concluded that the most severe and widespread heatwave to affect a large region of Europe could not have happened without human-caused climate change.
Big Oil is planning to make a bad situation worse because more fuel burning means bigger profits. A recent surge in profits, driven by high oil prices from Middle East conflicts, is being followed by investment in new wells. Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and seven other publicly listed firms aim to increase production by 14% on average by 2030, according to the LSE analysis.
Paris Agreement Goals Contradicted
More fuel is the last thing an already overheated world needs, pushing the planet away from Paris climate agreement goals. To limit global heating to between 1.5C and 2C by 2100, oil output needs to fall this decade. The current planned expansion is worse than the International Energy Agency's business-as-usual scenario, which envisages a 5.9% increase in oil and gas production this decade, leading to a catastrophic 2.9C global temperature increase by the end of the century.
The IEA has stated clearly that to align with the Paris agreement's goal of keeping global heating well below 2C, there can be no new long-term oil and gas exploration or development projects.
Why Oil Companies Plan to Pump More
Fossil fuel companies plan to increase production because executives operate in a different universe where the ethical compass is set to maximizing shareholder value rather than maintaining planetary habitability. Investors and supporters in the media have grabbed power and changed the global climate debate, according to analysis.
Six years ago, the petroleum business was on the defensive, with Greta Thunberg and climate strikers marching against fossil fuels worldwide. Opec bosses warned these protests were the greatest threat the industry had ever faced. Momentum for change was growing, with governments setting net zero targets and financial institutions committing to environmental governance goals.
Backtracking on Green Commitments
Some oil companies, mostly in Europe, aligned with the Paris agreement. BP was among the most ambitious, pledging a 40% cut in oil and gas production and a tenfold increase in renewable investment. Former CEO Bernard Looney promised BP would become a force for good as well as a provider of competitive returns. However, these pledges were never sufficient to fully align with Paris goals as they relied on unproven solutions like carbon capture and storage.
When concrete actions were needed, many petroleum firms backtracked. BP watered down its 40% fossil-fuel cut to 25% in 2023, the same year Looney was forced out. Two years later, it announced a strategic reset, slashing renewable energy investments by $3bn and increasing oil and gas spending to $10bn each year. Current CEO Meg O'Neill has continued this retreat with a strategy of simpler and stronger, effectively returning to petro-business as usual. While the world burned, BP's profits more than doubled in the last quarter.
Global Trend of Increased Production
The six European oil majors increased combined profits by 43% to $22bn in the same period, the highest since 2022. Most have backtracked on green energy commitments and ramped up production plans. Norway's Equinor lifted oil and gas output target by 6% by 2030. Brazil's Petrobras aims to supply 21% more oil by 2030. Almost every country and company seems to be racing to produce the last barrel of oil.
In the US, the world's biggest oil-and-gas-producing nation, many petroleum companies did not make low-carbon commitments. With Donald Trump's administration working in their interests, they have political cover to increase production—Exxon by 25% and Chevron by 15% by 2030—and expand markets. Investors and supporters are nudging Europe in the same direction through shareholder activism or funding far-right politicians and thinktanks campaigning against net zero policies.
Catastrophic Consequences Loom
Higher oil prices, shifting boardroom priorities, state capture, political cover, and cash for anti-net zero campaigns create a perfect storm for ever more extreme weather. With a new El Niño confirmed and forecast to be one of the most severe in decades, the Amazon braces for more fire and drought, polar regions face increased melting of snow and ice, and Earth's life-support system approaches dangerous tipping points.
Values must change, incentives need to shift, and petroleum companies must pay for backtracking on promises and putting shareholder dividends ahead of planetary health and human wellbeing, the analysis concludes.
