Chocolate lovers are facing a bitter taste this Christmas as prices have surged by 15.4% in the year to August, driven by poor cocoa harvests in West Africa. The cost of cocoa has more than doubled over the past two years, from below $3,500 per tonne to around $7,800, peaking at over $12,000 at the end of 2024. This has led to multiple rounds of shrinkflation, with popular treats like Quality Street, Celebrations, and Toblerone bars shrinking in size.
UK inflation held steady at 3.8% in August, but chocolate was a major riser alongside beef, butter, and coffee, pushing food price inflation back above 5% for the first time in 18 months. Britons spent £5.9bn on chocolate in the year to August, a 10% increase, but the quantity bought fell by 2%, indicating consumers are paying more for less.
Luxury brands have also been hit. Cocoba, a Kent-based gifting brand, delisted its 1kg jars of giant chocolate buttons after prices soared to £40. Founder Darren Litton said the company struggled to sell them even at that price due to high cocoa costs. The jars are returning for Christmas at £40, but margins remain tight. Meanwhile, Mondelēz, owner of Cadbury, expects annual profits to fall 10% due to higher cocoa prices.
Retail expert Alex Lawrence of Circana noted that the average price per kg for chocolate confectionery is up 27% over two years. A 110g bar of Cadbury Dairy Milk now costs £1.84 on average, 42p more than in 2023, while Galaxy has risen to £1.79. Supermarket prices across Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, and Morrisons reflect these increases.
Mondelēz cited significantly higher input costs for cocoa and dairy, along with elevated energy and transport costs. On the high street, Knoops, an upmarket hot chocolate chain, has seen its cocoa costs rise but has only passed on a small percentage to customers. Founder Jens Knoop described the cocoa price surge as a 'wild ride', noting that matcha costs also jumped 53%.
