NASA has reported that the probability of a 'city-destroying' asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 has increased to 2.3 per cent, or a one in 43 chance. The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, was first detected in late December 2024 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System in Chile. It has since topped both NASA's and the European Space Agency's lists of impact risks.
The asteroid is estimated to be between 40 and 90 metres in diameter, comparable in size to the Statue of Liberty. If it were to strike Earth, it could cause devastation similar to the Tunguska event of 1908, which flattened 830 square miles of Siberian forest with a force equivalent to 30 megatons of TNT. Its speed relative to Earth is about 29,000 miles per hour (46,800 kmph).
2024 YR4 currently holds a rating of three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating a close encounter that merits attention. The only object to have a higher rating was the 'doomsday asteroid' 99942 Apophis, which was later downgraded to zero after further observations ruled out an impact. Astronomers hope 2024 YR4 will follow a similar pattern as more data refines its trajectory.
Dr Shyam Balaji of King's College London noted that as additional observational data is gathered, the probability of impact is expected to decrease. He added that historical trends show most initially flagged objects eventually become non-threats. The asteroid is currently more than 27 million miles from Earth and moving away at high speed.
