Renewed Threats and Strikes Over the Strait of Hormuz
The familiar cycle of escalation between the US and Iran has resumed, with Tehran announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. This comes after a brief period of de-escalation following a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by former President Donald Trump. However, strikes have resumed after Iran targeted ships transiting the strait and the US retaliated. The MOU, which gave 60 days for negotiation, has faltered over a key section regarding the strait's administration.
Humanitarian Crisis Worsens
The World Food Programme reports feeding 1.5 million fewer people this year due to the US-Israel war. Vulnerable countries are hit hardest: an extra 2.5 million people in Somalia and 2.3 million in Afghanistan struggle to meet basic food needs. The strait's closure impacts global fertiliser exports, leading to reduced crop yields. Remittances from Gulf migrant workers have dried up, hurting Asian and African economies.
Regional Devastation and Economic Collapse
In Iran and Lebanon, thousands of civilians, including many children, have been killed, and infrastructure destroyed. Iran's economy is in freefall, and the regime is cracking down under cover of war. Tehran's retaliation has caused death and damage across the region, while consumers worldwide face higher energy and food prices.
US Domestic Politics and the MOU
With midterms approaching, domestic pressure pushed Trump to agree to the MOU. Yet less than a month in, strikes resumed. The MOU's vagueness on the strait's future administration—allowing for possible fees—was interpreted by Iran as cementing its control. Iran targeted ships using a separate US-coordinated route.
Rhetoric and Doom Loop
Rhetoric escalates: Tehran decreed revenge for the killing of late supreme leader Ali Khamenei, while Trump threatened to destroy Iran if attacked. Despite Trump calling the MOU and ceasefire over, he maintains talks will continue. Each iteration increases suspicion and complicates issues. The US can allow Iranian oil exports again, but the sector cannot recover without customer confidence.
Path to Resolution
Ending the war requires resolving Iranian control of the strait. Immediate priority is facilitating humanitarian shipments. Oman and others propose allowing navigational fees on a non-compulsory basis under a UN body. Leverage may matter more than profit to Iran's hardline regime. Trump seeks a triumph, not compromise, but neither side can secure victory or wants open-ended war. The world must coax them back to their senses or face the consequences.
