Like a losing gambler constantly borrowing to up his bet, the US is escalating its way out of the Iran crisis by stepping up targeting of military sites and switching to infrastructure such as airport runways and bridges. This puts Israel and Gulf States in the firing line, with Qatar under attack for the first time in months and sirens blaring in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Both Sides Push Aggression
Both sides are looking to push aggression further and exert pressure. The Iranian regime is watching US President Donald Trump’s ranting carefully, perhaps calculating correctly that he is growing bored and frustrated. It has been reported that the White House is now prepared for many weeks of fighting over the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump cannot find a path to withdrawing without humiliation and Iranian claims of victory. It is possible that one does not exist beyond major escalation, trying to force Tehran to back down. While Tehran seems unlikely to do that, Trump’s administration appears to choose that direction.
Tehran Claims US Base Hits
Tehran claims it targeted US bases and may have impacted one in Bahrain with a short-to-medium missile as American forces expand targeting. Sources tell the Mirror that US strikes are more powerful, a possible indication that more potent munitions are being used to leverage capitulation from Iran. The second powerful attack struck military sites along Iran’s southern coast but also targeted Iran’s Aq Qala bridge in the north, used for trade with Russia.
This may mark a subtle change in US military policy, homing in on civilian infrastructure such as trade routes, or that it is simply running out of available targets. All of this is becoming increasingly dangerous for the West and NATO as the US depletes its weapons stocks and air defence systems.
Depleting Stocks Weaken Ukraine
These systems are used to protect US and NATO bases and are made available to Arab partners and allies, and crucially Ukraine. Kyiv is desperate for Patriot missiles, the only reliable defence against Russia’s ballistic missiles, even though they can cost £2 million each. There are simply not enough to go around. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded recently that NATO remove Patriots from “warehouses” and get them to Kyiv, which has been hammered this week.
The US has piled through roughly half of its Patriot and THAAD defence stocks, a third of its Tomahawk cruise missiles, and half of its precision strike ballistic munitions. Incredibly, Iran has managed to soak up and deplete US supplies of missiles and bombs, and stocks could take three to five years to replenish. Surging energy prices have hugely benefited Russia, which before the Iran war was desperate for cash for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Iran Calculated It Could Outlast
Iran, and probably Russia, calculated that as the US threw munitions at Tehran and other cities, it could outlast the onslaught, and it has done so. Sending hundreds of drones to be intercepted by Israel, the US, and their allies may outcost the opposition because a £30,000 drone can cost hundreds of thousands of pounds to shoot down. The US produces 650 Patriots annually, with plans to increase to 2,000 a year by 2033. But Russia makes up to 1,000 of various types of ballistic missiles a year.
As the US runs out of both defence and offensive missiles, it is estimated it will take three to five years to replenish. An America not prepared and armed up enough for a major war makes the West weaker. Conflict in Iran is achieving nothing, and while it oscillates between rage and lull, NATO’s adversaries are watching carefully. Trump is running out of time to decide to face utter humiliation and walk away while mature diplomats and strategists try to unravel the Strait of Hormuz paralysis.
