Weather modelling maps indicate that the ongoing heatwave in the UK could last for more than two weeks, with temperatures soaring above 30°C daily until at least July 22. The GFS weather model shows maximum possible temperatures hitting 30°C or more every day, suggesting heatwave conditions will persist for another 15 days.
Temperatures are likely to surge above 35°C on several days between now and July 22. The data reveals highs of 36°C on Friday this week in western parts of England, with most central and southern areas reaching at least 32°C. Similar highs could follow on Wednesday next week, with 36°C again in western England, while parts of Wales and the far south of England could hit 35°C.
Peak Heat Expected Next Weekend
Saturday next week looks likely to bring the most widespread hot weather, with northern parts of England also rising above 30°C. Highs of 37°C are predicted in eastern parts of England, potentially making it the hottest day of this heatwave. Temperature anomaly maps for this period show the UK shaded in deep red, indicating temperatures well above the seasonal average.
The GFS model maps show 23 counties could see temperatures of 35°C or more across the 15 days, all in England and Wales. These counties include: Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire, Northamptonshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Gloucestershire, Wiltshire, Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, Hertfordshire, Surrey, Montgomeryshire, Radnorshire, and Brecknockshire.
Met Office Forecast and Warnings
The Met Office says temperatures this week are not expected to rise to the levels seen during the June heatwave, but has predicted some sweltering 35°C highs. Forecast temperatures for southern parts of the UK include highs of around 32°C on the day of the report, rising to 33°C the next day and 34°C on Thursday, with isolated locations potentially reaching 35°C on Friday and Saturday.
Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster Steven Keates said: “Night-time temperatures again will not be as high as what we experienced in June, though some larger urban areas are likely to remain in the high teens overnight, especially later in the week, and there is a chance that a tropical night (where temperatures do not fall below 20C) may be recorded in a few places. Much of England and Wales will be hot, and the heat will extend to parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland too, though here peak temperatures are more likely to be in the upper 20s. With high UV and high temperatures, people should take the usual precautions with the heat and the sun.”
The prolonged heatwave raises concerns about health risks, with urgent amber heat alerts already issued for six UK areas, warning of a potential rise in deaths. The Met Office has also noted that this third heatwave of the year will be different in three crucial ways, though details remain unspecified.
