The US-Iran escalation is the worst since an interim peace deal was struck between the two sides last month, but it also stands out for another reason. As the dust settles on around 80 sites targeted by American forces, some analysts suggest some of the US strikes were up to five times more powerful than previous attacks. This could be a sign that Washington, or perhaps more specifically Donald Trump, is growing tired of diplomacy and is building up to a more decisive military move against Tehran.
Israel's Role in the Escalation
In the background, Israel has a vested interest in encouraging America not to adhere to the terms of the memorandum of understanding. Israel hated this deal from the start because it includes Lebanon and to some degree threatens to restrict its ability to hit Hezbollah with pre-emptive strikes.
Vortex of Warfare
The US and Iran are trapped in a seemingly never-ending vortex of warfare, which Trump constantly stirs with bellicose language such as calling Tehran's leaders “scum.” The latest exchange of missiles happened as Tehran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opened fire on three oil and gas tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. All three were apparently travelling through the US-recommended Oman side of the Strait, as opposed to the one Iran demands they use, on its side. The Iran attacks were a direct snub to Washington's dwindling authority in the region, and America has reacted with extremely robust attacks on Iranian soil.
Iran's Resilience
Tehran knew there would be a strong American reaction but has displayed a near-psychotic appetite for soaking up military pressure from the US. American forces have thrown everything they have at Tehran, and thus far it appears to have had little effect except to deplete its air defences, naval vessels and troops. On a practical level, US Central Command says it has been “launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping.” But it has been doing this for months now, on and off, and yet Tehran still displays the ability to keep attacking, seemingly whenever it wants to do so.
Regional Fallout
This is also having the effect of leaving places like Bahrain feeling exposed. Meanwhile, all of this fallout is giving Israel breathing space to whittle down the threat from Hezbollah, whilst militarily depleting Iran's weapons and ability to defend itself – albeit at a snail's pace. Trump is being read, perfectly predicted and even controlled by both Iran and Israel, and each US attack makes Tehran even more determined.
Revoked Deal and Economic Pressure
The US has revoked the part of the memorandum of understanding that allowed Tehran to trade in oil, as punishment for the latest attacks. It could be that Iran is over-extending itself, as the regime and its increasingly powerful IRGC has a tendency to do when it is waging war. That can only lead towards a blown-up ceasefire agreement and a return to war unless Washington finds a way of backing down without humiliation. This is almost impossible to achieve as most of the western world is feeling the pressure and economic fallout from the crisis, because the Strait of Hormuz remains precarious for shipping. And Donald Trump's petrol bomb diplomacy is adding fuel to the blaze in the region.
