The palpable relief felt by delegates at the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, over America's official absence has been tempered by an unsettling reality: Donald Trump's influence continues to cast a long shadow over the proceedings.
America's Climate Retreat
Under the former president, the United States has not only abandoned efforts to address the climate crisis but has actively worked to undermine global transitions to cleaner energy sources. Trump recently told the UN that climate change represents "the greatest con job perpetrated by the world", urging nations to stick with oil and gas while dismissing renewable energy as a "scam".
The absence of a US delegation at this year's summit initially provided other countries with breathing space to advance climate discussions without American obstruction. Christiana Figueres, former executive secretary of the UN framework convention on climate change, remarked that the US departure from the Paris agreement was essentially "Ciao, bambino" - a welcome development for climate progress.
Nervous Negotiations
Despite the physical absence, anxiety ripples through the negotiating halls in Belém. Multiple sources report that diplomats are proceeding cautiously, fearing potential retribution from Trump should he return to power. Several negotiators have privately admitted to tempering their positions to avoid provoking the former president.
The concern stems from recent incidents where US representatives employed bullying tactics to derail international environmental agreements, including meetings aimed at curbing shipping emissions. Bill Hare, a veteran climate scientist and COP observer, noted that "the negotiators are talking about it and worrying about it. The small countries are all saying, 'We could be vulnerable. We could get picked off at a capital level.'"
Potential Intervention Looms
Trump's energy secretary, Chris Wright, recently declared that COP30 is "essentially a hoax" and suggested that Trump might attend next year's talks "just to try to deliver some common sense". This threat of future intervention hangs heavily over current negotiations.
As the two-week summit progresses toward potentially significant climate agreements requiring consensus, many fear Trump could "swoop" in to disrupt proceedings. The absence of what one delegate described as "the school bully" has allowed meaningful progress, but the spectre of American interference remains a constant concern for vulnerable nations.
The situation highlights the fragile nature of international climate diplomacy when facing potential opposition from the world's leading economic and military superpower, even when that power chooses to sit officially on the sidelines.
