Vladimir Putin is reportedly planning a devastating winter attack aimed at forcing three Ukrainian nuclear power plants off the electricity grid as part of a campaign involving up to 1,000 missiles, drones and aerial bombs. The alleged plan includes strikes on electrical infrastructure serving the Rivne, South Ukraine and Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plants.
Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal presented what he described as an "intercepted Russian plan" to European partners in Paris around two weeks ago, reports The New York Times. The outlet obtained a copy of the Russian-language document, dated August, which reportedly sets out a campaign targeting a wide range of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, including substations, hydroelectric and thermal power plants and boiler houses. It says up to 1,000 missiles, drones and bombs could be used.
Alleged Russian strategy in three stages
The document also outlines plans to fire missiles at electrical switchyards connecting Ukraine's three operating nuclear power stations to the national grid. The switchyards sit less than a mile from the reactors, with the reported aim of the strikes being to force the plants to disconnect from the grid.
Ukraine's fourth nuclear plant, Zaporizhzhia, is Europe's largest and has been at the centre of heavy fighting during the war. The site fell under Russian control in March 2022 following repeated strikes on or near the facility.
The alleged Russian strategy is divided into three stages. The first would target substations near Ukraine's western borders which allow electricity to be imported from Europe. Hydroelectric power plants would then be targeted before a third stage aimed at forcing the Rivne, South Ukraine and Khmelnytskyi nuclear plants offline.
Plans for Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa
The document says the attacks would seek to remove almost 15 gigawatts of generating capacity, roughly the amount Ukraine had available at the end of the summer. Separate plans have reportedly also been prepared for Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. The document outlines plans to cut electricity and heating supplies in the three cities by as much as 90 per cent.
Ukraine's water system is also reportedly included in the plans, with pumping stations and wastewater treatment facilities among the potential targets. Dozens of ballistic missiles and glide bombs could be used against those sites, according to the document. Ukrainian officials have privately raised concerns about the country's limited backup options if major disruption to water supplies occurs.
The reported aim would be to leave major cities without power, heating and water, potentially triggering a humanitarian crisis. Mr Shmyhal reportedly described the document to European partners as an intercepted Russian plan to bring down Ukraine's energy system through a series of methodical attacks.
Recent strikes and winter preparations
Speaking publicly about the material a week ago, he said: "Our partners, like us, were struck by its cynicism, by this cold, terrorist calculation of how to destroy our energy sector." The reported plans come after missiles and drones struck a large thermal power plant and other energy facilities before dawn on Wednesday.
Explosions were heard in Kyiv and several neighbourhoods were left without electricity and water by the morning. Ukrainian officials said the attack marked the start of a new campaign against the country's energy infrastructure as winter approaches.
Officials have been warning for months that Russia could launch fresh attacks on Ukraine's power grid during the colder months. Ukraine has spent that time preparing its energy network for further attacks, carrying out repairs and building protective structures around key facilities such as substations. Smaller energy facilities, including gas-powered turbines, have also been installed, while work has been carried out to allow electricity to be rerouted when transmission lines are damaged.
Last winter brought widespread power and heating cuts as Russia repeatedly targeted energy infrastructure. Kyiv residents were regularly without electricity for 12 hours or more a day last winter, according to data shared by energy company DTEK. Some people living in high-rise buildings also lost access to water when pumps stopped working, while lifts were knocked out during power cuts.
Mr Shmyhal told parliament in August that Ukraine had about 15 gigawatts of available capacity, with that expected to rise above 21 gigawatts by the end of the year, compared with peak demand of around 18 gigawatts last winter. Energy analyst Maria Tsaturian warned that just a few strikes could wipe out the five gigawatts Ukraine has restored in recent months.
