The Met Office has warned that new heatwaves could be on the way, with temperatures potentially rising to 34C once more in parts of the UK. Downpours this week provided a brief respite for bone-dry Britain after half of England was plunged into drought by five summer heatwaves, but cooler conditions are not expected to last as the country heads into September.
Forecast for early September
Weather forecasting models suggest the sweltering heat could soar again within the next fortnight. Temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to low-20s in southern areas this week, dropping into the high teens in northern areas. Rain is also forecast across large swathes of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England.
In its forecast for September 2 to September 16, the Met Office says "late season hot spells or heatwaves" could develop, particularly in southern areas. However, "a broad northwest-southeast split in conditions" is on the cards, with more northern areas facing "the lion's share of the rain and any strong winds" while southern areas are likely to be drier.
Heatwave thresholds and GFS data
The Met Office declares an official heatwave when temperatures hit the "heatwave threshold" three days in a row. The threshold stands at 28C in the south-east, where conditions tend to be warmer, and drops to 25C the further away from the south-east you go.
The Global Forecast System (GFS) model suggests the mercury could rise back to 30C in eastern parts of England on September 1. The data shows potential highs of 29C in the Midlands, with temperatures possibly rising to 28C as far north as Yorkshire, and to 26C in South Wales. Even warmer conditions could then follow on September 2.
The data shows potential highs of 34C in Essex, with 32-33C on the cards quite widely across eastern and south-eastern England. Temperature anomaly maps for the start of September show England and Wales shaded in areas of orange and red, suggesting temperatures will rise above the seasonal average once more.
Counties set for 31C or more
In total, the GFS model suggests 15 counties could see temperatures of 31C or more at the start of September. They are all in eastern or south-eastern England: Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Hertfordshire, Essex, Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Hampshire, Surrey, Kent and Sussex.
The summer has already seen five sizzling heatwaves. The hot spells in May and June led to 2,800 excess deaths. Last month was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836.
