The Met Office has said there is a “heightened potential” for wet, windy, stormy weather and flooding this autumn as El Niño continues to disrupt global weather patterns. Forecasters also warned that this phenomenon could disrupt cold winds near the Arctic known as the stratospheric polar vortex.
Forecast for the Coming Months
However, the latest forecasts suggest that El Niño is currently more likely to cause temperatures to drop this winter, without creating a polar vortex over the UK this autumn. The phenomenon, however, is also likely to bring wet and windy weather this week, with rainy and gusty conditions already expected in parts of the country, which began on Monday.
Atmospheric waves triggered by El Niño destabilise the polar vortex, also increasing the chance of heavy snow, experts say. The Met Office’s long-range outlook for the next three months shows higher-than-normal chances of rain, wind and mild conditions.
Increased Odds of Wet Conditions
There is twice the normal chance of the October to December period being wet overall, while windy and mild weather is also more likely than usual. Dr Will Lang, chief forecaster at the Met Office, said it was a “subtle shift in the odds” rather than saying it would definitely be wetter, milder and windier.
He said: “We are going in with a heightened potential for wet weather, heightened potential for potentially stormy conditions, and that leads through to a heightened potential for flooding.” There are also early indications that late winter could see an increased chance of drier, colder and calmer conditions.
Impact of El Niño
The Met Office says the likely conditions are consistent with the impacts of El Niño on UK autumn and winter weather. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean when sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become significantly warmer than average, changing atmospheric circulation patterns and affecting weather worldwide.
A record-breaking “Godzilla” El Niño has already developed in recent months. These latest forecasts come after a drier than average September for much of the UK, which follows a record hot summer with widespread drought in England and Wales that brought hosepipe bans, impacts on crops and wildlife, and fires.
The UK saw 77% of the average summer rainfall, with all areas except for north-west Scotland experiencing a dry summer, and parts of southern and eastern England seeing particularly parched conditions, including a run of 62 consecutive days without rain at Wisley, Surrey. The Environment Agency says the drought will continue until reservoirs and aquifers are recharged, and above-average rainfall is needed to restore conditions to where they should be.
