Iran has demonstrated its ability to inflict damage despite waves of US attacks, as leaked intelligence reports reveal Tehran retained about 70% of its prewar missile stockpile and launchers after a 38-day spring bombing campaign. The US and Iran have been trading blows for six consecutive nights, with no signs of de-escalation. On Friday, a wave of US attacks targeted Iranian ports and southern regions, collapsing a tower at Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman and damaging highways and bridges into the key Hormuz port of Bandar Abbas, possibly aiming to cut it off.
Iranian Retaliation Targets US Allies
Iran responded by attacking US allies: Qatar, Bahrain, and most significantly Kuwait, where a power and desalination plant was hit, causing a fire and undetermined damage. Desalination is critical for water supply in the arid Gulf, providing an estimated 90% of Kuwait's needs. The US had claimed its intense bombing campaign with Israel destroyed or decimated Iran's military. President Trump told Fox News that Iran's "weapons are down 91%," but leaked US intelligence assessments from May concluded that Iran had regained access to 30 out of 33 missile launch sites along the Strait of Hormuz and perhaps 70% of its overall prewar missile stockpile and launchers.
Tanker Attacks and Blockade Reimposed
Two oil tankers sailing along the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz near Oman were struck by missiles on Monday, according to the UK's Maritime Trade Organisation, killing one sailor and wounding eight. A third tanker was struck further east in the Gulf of Oman. The US reimposed its own blockade in the Gulf of Oman, and the number of daily transits through Hormuz dropped to three by Thursday, the fewest since May. Brent crude oil rose from $75.50 to $82. Another tanker was reported hit on Friday, with no casualties reported.
Escalation Costs and Strategic Options
Michael Carpenter, a former Biden administration national security official now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: "Now that the plaster has been ripped off, the costs for escalation for both sides are so much lower than before February 28," but the White House has "no clear or well thought-through strategy for how to get out of this." The US is exploring options to bend Iran to its will, but a substantial ground campaign is not prepared for. The 2,200 marines in the USS Boxer amphibious group are enforcing the blockade. Military escalation options considered at a White House Situation Room meeting included bombing another nuclear site at Pickaxe Mountain or seizing Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports would flow. Continued US bombing reduces stockpiles of air defence interceptors, depleted by half, and expensive missiles, down by a quarter to a third, based on CSIS estimates.
Threats of Further Escalation and Endurance
Trump has threatened to escalate further, bombing "all their power plants" possibly as soon as next week, which would invite international condemnation as a war crime and risk dangerous Iranian retaliation. Iran's regime has shown endurance, as underlined by the week-long national funeral procession of Ali Khamenei. Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a lecturer at Cambridge University, fears a sharp military escalation but thinks it will be shorter than in the spring because both sides are depleted. "Neither can deliver a knockout blow at an acceptable price," she said.
