Europe's Green Ambition Undermined by Political Pressure
Climate action, once a flagship European policy, now faces significant challenges as the European Union's leadership risks faltering ahead of the crucial COP30 climate negotiations in Brazil. This represents a dramatic shift from a decade ago, when Europe played a pivotal role in achieving the landmark Paris Agreement that committed nations to limiting global heating to 1.5°C.
The Paris climate agreement directly paved the way for the European Green Deal in 2019, which legally enshrined the ambition of achieving climate neutrality across the EU by 2050. This comprehensive plan introduced robust pricing, regulatory and funding mechanisms that positioned Europe as a global frontrunner in climate policy.
The Rise of the 'Greenlash' and Policy Retreat
Following the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the political landscape shifted dramatically. Nationalist and far-right groups successfully turned the Green Deal into a political bogeyman, claiming it would cause Europe's deindustrialisation and create dependencies on China. This 'greenlash' has now polluted mainstream politics, amplified by external pressure from the Trump administration and major gas exporters like Qatar.
The consequences are becoming alarmingly clear. The EU has significantly weakened its 2040 greenhouse gas reduction targets, embedding review clauses that allow for backsliding during economic downturns. Key measures are being delayed or diluted, including:
- The expansion of emissions trading to homes and transport
- The implementation of deforestation regulations
- The planned 2035 ban on new combustion engine cars
Furthermore, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), scheduled for implementation on 1 January 2026, now faces potential radical overhaul before full deployment, despite already prompting countries like Brazil, Turkey and Japan to strengthen their domestic carbon pricing.
Europe Risks Shooting Itself in the Foot
This retreat from climate leadership represents Europe shooting itself in the foot economically and strategically. As a fossil-fuel-poor continent, Europe's energy security and prosperity fundamentally depend on leading the green transition. While China accelerates its renewable energy efforts, Europe appears to be slowing down, seemingly forgetting that climate principles and economic prosperity are deeply intertwined.
The paradox deepens as Europe's backtracking makes China appear more virtuous by comparison. European countries had pledged impressive emission cuts of 66.3% to 72.5% by 2035, but last-minute dilution of these targets casts doubt on this ambition. Meanwhile, China aims for only a 10% reduction over the next decade.
Despite these challenges, not all is lost. Europe remains at the forefront of the journey towards net zero in terms of targets, policies and climate finance. However, its self-interest clearly lies in reclaiming climate leadership and rebuilding political common cause with global south countries, rather than retreating from its commitments under political pressure.
