An international team of scientists has warned that Earth's “vital signs” are worse than at any time in human history, placing life on the planet in peril. Their latest report, published in the journal Bioscience, found that 20 of the 35 planetary vital signs used to track the climate crisis are at record extremes, including greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature, sea level rise, and human and livestock population numbers.
Many climate records were broken by enormous margins in 2023, the researchers said, including global air temperature, ocean temperature and Antarctic sea ice extent. July recorded the highest monthly surface temperature ever, likely the hottest the planet has been in 100,000 years. An extraordinary wildfire season in Canada produced unprecedented carbon dioxide emissions, totalling 1bn tonnes – equivalent to Japan's entire annual output – which could indicate a tipping point into a new fire regime.
The scientists urged a transition to a global economy prioritising human wellbeing and cutting the overconsumption and excessive emissions of the rich, noting that the top 10% of emitters were responsible for almost 50% of global emissions in 2019. Without action, they warned of potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems, with up to 6 billion people possibly outside Earth's livable regions by 2100, facing severe heat, limited food and elevated mortality.
Professor Tim Lenton, a co-author at the University of Exeter, said the record extremes risk triggering tipping points that could cause irreversible damage and accelerate climate change. However, he added that positive tipping points in societies and economies could ensure a rapid and just transition to a sustainable future. The report also highlighted devastating extreme weather events in 2023, including floods in China and India, heatwaves in the US, and a Mediterranean storm that killed thousands in Libya.
The researchers recommended phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, ramping up forest protection, shifting towards plant-based diets in wealthy countries, and adopting international treaties to end new coal projects and phase out oil and gas. They also called for stabilising and gradually decreasing the human population through voluntary family planning and supporting women's education and rights.
