Leading researchers have warned that planned job cuts at Australia's national science agency will leave the country unable to submit climate projections to major global reports, significantly reducing its capacity to forecast future environmental damage.
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is reportedly preparing to cut about 100 scientist roles, including around five of the 15 core staff working on the national climate model known as the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (Access). This forms part of a wider plan, announced last November, to reduce full-time research positions by 300 to 350, following the loss of 818 support staff last year.
Scientists say the cuts to the Access modelling team will undermine Australia's ability to contribute to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. Professor Andy Hogg, a climate modelling expert and director of Access-NRI, said the core capability team is 12-15 people, not the 60 that CSIRO had suggested to a Senate inquiry. "These cuts will make us suboptimal in core climate science capability," he said.
Professor Christian Jakob of Monash University said the cuts would remove a "basic foundational capability" and mean Australia would no longer be seen as a credible contributor to international climate assessments. "I feel angry. I have been a climate modeller for 30 years," he said. Another concern is that Australia may miss the deadline for submitting projections for the IPCC's seventh assessment report, due in 2028 and 2029. Hogg noted Australia is the only country with modelling focused on the southern hemisphere.
A CSIRO spokesperson defended the changes, saying the agency would retain climate science capability and continue to provide climate data, models and scenarios. The proposed cuts would sharpen effort by reducing activity in selected areas including atmospheric chemistry modelling, Indo-Pacific ocean dynamics and some operational support. The cuts are set to proceed despite an additional A$387m in federal funding announced last week, largely for building upgrades and research infrastructure.
