The future of global climate cooperation hangs in the balance as world leaders converge in the Amazonian city of Belém for COP30, the United Nations climate summit that many are calling the most consequential since the Paris Agreement.
A Nation's Heartbreak
Surangel Whipps, president of the Pacific island nation of Palau, experienced profound dismay during Donald Trump's recent UN speech. Sitting in the front row of the general assembly, Whipps listened as the former US president dismissed climate change as a "green scam" and "the greatest con job ever perpetrated."
For Palau, home to nearly 20,000 people, climate change represents an existential threat. The nation faces rising sea levels, devastating floods, and increasingly intense storms that could render its entire population refugees if global heating surpasses 1.5°C for a prolonged period.
"Our children need hope, they need to be inspired," Whipps said. "They need to see us coming together to solve problems." Instead, they witnessed what many climate-vulnerable nations fear represents a dangerous global trend toward climate denialism.
The Populist Challenge
The progress made on climate action in recent years now faces significant challenges from rising populist movements worldwide. Beyond Trump's rhetoric, the European Union has seen hard-right groupings delay key emissions decisions, while the UK's Reform party openly embraces climate denial.
In Argentina, President Javier Milei has implemented drastic cuts to climate policies alongside economic measures. This global rightward shift threatens to undermine international cooperation precisely when scientific evidence indicates accelerating climate impacts.
Yet public opinion tells a different story. Recent polls indicate that 89% of people globally express concern about the climate crisis and want decisive action. This disconnect between political leadership and public sentiment creates a complex backdrop for the COP30 negotiations.
The Belém Test
Brazil's presidency of COP30 faces immense challenges with 145 agenda items requiring resolution over the two-week summit. The host nation has prioritised maintaining unity among starkly divided global interests while focusing on the needs of developing countries.
"The Paris agreement is our mandate; Belém is the test," stated Ban Ki-moon, former UN secretary general. "In a fractured world, the Paris agreement remains the one pact that shows humanity can act as one – but it needs resuscitation through action, not rhetoric."
Nature itself provides urgent reminders of what's at stake. Global temperatures have breached the 1.5°C safety limit for two consecutive years, while record-breaking hurricanes, Middle Eastern temperatures exceeding 50°C, and soaring ocean temperatures demonstrate accelerating climate breakdown.
The Emissions Gap
A critical challenge facing COP30 delegates involves addressing the yawning "emissions gap" between current pledges and what science demands. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) form the foundation of the Paris Agreement, yet fewer than 90 countries submitted their plans by the February deadline.
UN estimates indicate that current NDCs would achieve only one-sixth of the emissions reductions necessary to limit warming to 1.5°C. Brazil's presidency has been reluctant to formally address this inadequacy, focusing instead on implementation rather than negotiation room debates.
Despite political challenges, real-world climate action shows promising signs. Renewables accounted for over 90% of new power capacity added worldwide last year, with solar becoming the cheapest electricity in history. Global clean-energy investment is expected to reach $2.2 trillion this year, approximately double fossil-fuel spending.
Financial Justice
Developing countries will judge COP30's success largely on financial commitments. The previous climate summit agreed that $1.3 trillion should flow annually to the developing world by 2035, but rich countries committed to providing only $300 billion of this amount.
"We need a fair deal," emphasised Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa. "These are not acts of charity – they are investments in a stable, livable planet. We need to see the sharing of clean energy technology by the global north with the global south."
Brazil's signature initiative, the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, seeks initial pledges of $25 billion to protect existing forests, leveraging this to attract $100 billion from global financial markets. The fund would reward forested regions for reducing deforestation while financing biodiversity conservation.
The Fossil Fuel Dilemma
A contentious issue involves how to address the root cause of climate change: fossil fuels. While COP28 in Dubai made history by resolving to "transition away from fossil fuels," subsequent efforts to reaffirm this commitment faced obstruction.
Approximately 50 countries reportedly want to prevent further discussion of fossil fuel phase-out at COP30. Brazil itself ranks among the top ten global oil and gas exporters and continues prospecting for new fields, including offshore from the Amazon.
President Lula da Silva has defended poor nations' rights to exploit their resources, arguing that wealthy countries that caused the climate crisis should lead the transition away from fossil fuels.
The Urgency of Action
As negotiations proceed in Belém, vulnerable nations like Palau watch with growing anxiety. The aftermath of a tropical storm that struck Palau on 30 October provides stark evidence of the escalating climate threats facing small island nations.
Meena Raman of the Third World Network warns that future promises won't suffice. "It is no longer sufficient to merely invoke the need to save multilateralism. We must deliver on saving the planet and protecting the world's most vulnerable. What is needed now is bold, accountable action that prioritises justice, equity and survival."
With democracy fragile in Brazil and many nations experiencing economic hardship and populist pressures, simply maintaining cooperation represents a significant achievement. Yet for the millions facing climate-induced displacement and livelihood destruction, far more substantial action remains urgently necessary.
