Before Sunday's Golden Globes ceremony, Hollywood enters the 'playoff' stage of Oscar season, with the Directors Guild of America, Producers Guild of America, American Society of Cinematographers and BAFTA rolling out nominations and longlists that will narrow the field for more than two dozen films vying for Academy Awards attention. With Oscar nomination voting starting on Monday, Jan. 12, this stretch becomes one of the highest-pressure tests for campaigns, leaving little room for pivots and strategy changes.
At the DGA, the best director race is expected to align closely with top contenders for best picture. Likely nominees include Paul Thomas Anderson ('One Battle After Another'), Ryan Coogler ('Sinners') and Chloé Zhao ('Hamnet'), who currently lead in director wins for the season. The two remaining spots feature a competitive dash between Guillermo Del Toro ('Frankenstein') and Josh Safdie ('Marty Supreme'), alongside internationally acclaimed figures Joachim Trier, Jafar Panahi, Kleber Mendonça Filho and Yorgos Lanthimos.
The PGA nominations, dropping on Friday, are predicted to include Anderson's 'One Battle After Another', Coogler's 'Sinners' and Zhao's 'Hamnet' as likely locks, joined by Del Toro's 'Frankenstein', Safdie's 'Marty Supreme' and Trier's 'Sentimental Value'. Also expected to contend are Clint Bentley's indie drama 'Train Dreams', along with populist favourites such as Joseph Kosinski's 'F1' and Jon M. Chu's 'Wicked: For Good', with James Cameron's 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' also potentially appearing.
The ASC race will likely shake up cinematography, with Autumn Durald Arkapaw ('Sinners') joining a short list of women nominated by the guild. Also in contention are Adolpho Veloso ('Train Dreams'), Michael Bauman ('One Battle After Another'), Łukasz Żal ('Hamnet') and Dan Laustsen ('Frankenstein'), along with former ASC nominees Claudio Miranda ('F1'), Darius Khondji ('Marty Supreme') and Robbie Ryan ('Bugonia').
BAFTA longlists, announced on Friday, are expected to highlight both American studio films and international cinema. Del Toro's 'Frankenstein' is projected to lead with 12 mentions, including best film and two acting mentions for Oscar Isaac and Jacob Elordi. Zhao's 'Hamnet', Anderson's 'One Battle After Another' and Coogler's 'Sinners' are expected to follow closely with 10 each. This will be a key test for 'Sinners', as it remains unclear how international voters will respond, given BAFTA's struggles to recognise Black performers. The hope is that the longlists will at least include Michael B. Jordan and Wunmi Mosaku.
