In the early 2020s, readers turned to nonfiction to understand a world shaken by Brexit, Trump, and social upheaval, with titles like Timothy Snyder's On Tyranny and Reni Eddo-Lodge's work topping charts. However, a new report from NielsenIQ reveals a sharp downturn: trade nonfiction sales volumes have fallen 8.4% from last summer to the same period this year, nearly double the decline in paperback fiction. Fourteen out of 18 nonfiction subcategories have contracted, with only a few exceptions like Chloe Dalton's Raising Hare and Gillian Anderson's Want.
Anecdotal evidence from authors paints a grim picture. One writer faced multiple rejections with publishers citing poor sales, while another pivoted from nonfiction to fiction on her agent's advice due to market conditions. A third author heard that only 'Hollywood friendly' nonfiction—such as made-for-TV memoirs—is finding favour. The reasons cited include a desire for escapism from grim news, and a sense of disillusionment after past reading didn't transform the world as hoped.
Publishing insiders note a shift toward romantasy and other escapist genres. Emily Ash Powell, a journalist, says, 'Things feel so bleak right now that people want to escape a little bit.' Holly Harley, editorial director at Head of Zeus, adds, 'A lot of the trend-led interest in social justice has fallen away.' The Black Lives Matter-inspired surge in books by writers of colour also stalled, with a later analysis by The Bookseller finding the boom failed to broaden publishing's output.
Some authors question the quality of new nonfiction, calling it 'boring' and 'risk-averse.' One novelist says, 'Everything they publish is pop politics or jargon-heavy niche topics.' Another blames books commissioned for social media followings rather than ideas, saying, 'It feels very Instagram-coded.' Meanwhile, nonfiction faces fierce competition from free online content like video essays and podcasts offering bite-sized knowledge. Harley admits, 'Podcasts are in direct competition with nonfiction.'
Despite the downturn, areas like nature writing, cookbooks, and narrative-driven memoirs still thrive. A publishing insider says, 'It needs to be more creative, more unique. The days of dry academic-style books are over.' Titles like Raising Hare, a personal story about a hare, and Want, essays on female desire, succeed by offering emotional connection. Publishers may need to adapt to keep nonfiction relevant in a changing market.
