Special educational needs services in England are heading towards “total collapse”, with councils warning that 59 upper-tier authorities could face effective bankruptcy by March 2028 without urgent structural reform. The County Councils Network (CCN) report, published on Friday, estimates that councils could accumulate debts of £18bn by the end of the decade due to soaring demand for support.
The number of education, health and care plans (EHCPs) has risen to a record 638,000 in 2024-25, with forecasts suggesting 840,000 by 2028-29 – equivalent to one in 20 children. Autism, neurodiversity, social and emotional health, and language difficulties account for over two-thirds of EHCPs. Councils are increasingly relying on costly private specialist schools, with an average annual cost of £72,000 per place, compared to £10,000 in mainstream schools.
The CCN report calls on ministers to write off accumulated Send debts alongside legislative changes and reforms to Send appeal tribunals to reduce access to specialist support – a move likely to face fierce opposition from parents. Matthew Hicks, CCN chair, said: “The system is heading towards total collapse in little over four years. This could mean families facing even longer waits for support, councils facing a level of demand that the system was never designed for, and local authorities staring down unimaginable deficits of almost £18bn.”
The Department for Education acknowledged it had “inherited a Send system on its knees” and said it was “determined to put that right by improving mainstream inclusion so every child can thrive at their local school”. A comprehensive survey by the Guardian earlier this year revealed councils’ total forecast accumulated Send deficits at £3.2bn by March 2025, rising to £5.2bn by March 2026. The CCN survey estimates a steeper rise to £6.6bn by March 2026, £13.4bn by March 2028, and £18bn a year later.
March 2028 is a pivotal date as a temporary accounting arrangement allowing councils to keep Send debts off balance sheets expires, potentially rendering many councils insolvent. Lorna Baxter, president of the Association of Local Authority Treasurers, warned: “We often hear of the black hole in public finances but Send deficits totalling billions of pounds are being hidden in local authority accounts. Without prompt government intervention, we risk an unprecedented local authority financial crisis.”
