England's special educational needs system is heading towards total collapse within four years, with local authorities warning of potential bankruptcy for 59 councils by March 2028 unless urgent government intervention occurs.
The Mounting Financial Crisis
According to a stark report from the County Councils Network (CCN), councils across England are on course to accumulate £18 billion in SEND-related debts by the end of this decade. This alarming projection comes as accelerating numbers of children require additional teaching support in schools, placing unprecedented strain on local authority budgets.
The CCN has called for ministers to write off councils' accumulated SEND debts while implementing controversial legislative changes. Matthew Hicks, CCN chair, stated unequivocally: "The system is heading towards total collapse in little over four years. This could mean families facing even longer waits for support, councils facing a level of demand that the system was never designed for, and local authorities staring down unimaginable deficits."
Record Demand for Support
The crisis has been triggered by explosive growth in Education and Health Care Plans (EHCPs), which give children and young people up to age 25 the legal right to support for conditions including:
- Autism and neurodiverse needs
- Speech and language difficulties
- Social and emotional health requirements
The CCN report reveals that EHCPs issued reached a record 638,000 in 2024-25, with forecasts predicting this could rise to 840,000 by 2028-29 - equivalent to one in twenty children and young people.
This surging demand has forced councils to increasingly rely on private specialist schools, some owned by private equity investors. The cost disparity is staggering: while mainstream school places average £10,000 annually, special school placements cost an average of £72,000 per place each year.
Approaching Financial Precipice
March 2028 represents a critical deadline for local authorities. At this point, an accounting arrangement allowing councils to keep SEND debts off their balance sheets expires. Returning these debts to council books would immediately render many authorities effectively insolvent.
Current deficit projections show a rapid escalation:
- £3.2 billion by March 2025
- £5.2 billion by March 2026
- £13.4 billion by March 2028
- £18 billion by March 2029
Lorna Baxter, president of the Association of Local Authority Treasurers, warned: "Without prompt government intervention, we risk an unprecedented local authority financial crisis."
The Department for Education acknowledged inheriting "a SEND system on its knees" and stated its determination to improve mainstream inclusion so every child can thrive in their local school. However, with parents already facing an adversarial system where they must "battle relentlessly" for support, the proposed reforms are likely to face significant opposition from families desperate to secure essential educational support for their children.
