Special educational needs services in England face “total collapse”, with councils on course to have run up debts of £18bn by the end of the decade, according to a report by the County Councils Network (CCN). The report warns that without urgent structural reform, 59 upper-tier authorities could face effective bankruptcy by March 2028.
The number of education, health and care plans (EHCPs) issued has risen to a record 638,000 in 2024-25, and is forecast to reach 840,000 by 2028-29, equivalent to one in 20 children and young people. Autism, neurodiversity, social and emotional health, and language difficulties account for more than two-thirds of EHCPs.
Councils are increasingly relying on expensive private specialist schools, with 34,000 pupils in special schools at an average annual cost of £72,000 per place, compared to £10,000 in mainstream schools. The CCN report calls on ministers to write off accumulated Send debts and reform appeal tribunals, though parents are expected to oppose such changes.
Matthew Hicks, CCN chair, said: “The system is heading towards total collapse in little over four years. This could mean families facing even longer waits for support, councils facing a level of demand that the system was never designed for, and local authorities staring down unimaginable deficits of almost £18bn.”
The Department for Education said it had “inherited a Send system on its knees” and is “determined to put that right by improving mainstream inclusion”. The government is preparing long-delayed changes to curb rising spending while meeting specialist needs within mainstream schools.
A pivotal date is March 2028, when an accounting “override” allowing councils to keep Send debts off balance sheets ends. Lorna Baxter, president of the Association of Local Authority Treasurers, warned: “Without prompt government intervention, we risk an unprecedented local authority financial crisis.”
