The Iranian government under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be unable to maintain control over society after the violent suppression of recent protests, according to the award-winning film-maker Jafar Panahi. Speaking to the Guardian, Panahi said it was impossible for the regime to sustain itself, adding that its leaders were aware of this and might seek to bring the country to the brink of collapse.
Protests fuelled by economic hardship have swept Iran since late December, with security forces launching deadly crackdowns in which more than 2,500 people have reportedly been killed. Panahi described the near-total internet blackout imposed last Friday as a sign of an impending massacre, but said he had not predicted the scale of the violence.
Panahi, whose film It Was Just an Accident won the Palme d'Or at Cannes and is a leading contender for the 2026 Oscars, said the work depicts a cycle of violence that becomes hard to stop. He was handed a one-year prison sentence in absentia last month on charges of creating propaganda, and has been jailed twice previously for supporting protests.
He said the regime's collapse was inevitable and would happen '100%', though its timing was unpredictable. Warning western governments against treating the clerical leadership as rational actors, he argued that no rationality existed in the system, only a focus on crackdowns and staying in power.
On calls for Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the late shah, to lead a transition, Panahi noted that such demands were emerging from the protests but stressed the need for a referendum. 'Whether we agree with Pahlavi or not, we know that the overwhelming majority of the population of Iran want the current regime to go,' he said.
