Guardian Europe editor Jon Henley has answered readers’ questions about Europe’s future, addressing topics from a potential two-tier EU to the bloc’s ability to survive internal divisions. The Q&A session comes as the Munich Security Conference opens, marking a year since US Vice President JD Vance’s criticism of European leaders.
Henley acknowledged that a two-tier Europe is likely, with countries such as France, Germany, Poland, Italy and the Baltics driving defence and finance, while others like Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland follow. He noted that the idea has existed for decades under names like “two-speed Europe” but has been resisted due to fears of division. However, he said challenges from China, the US, energy costs and climate change mean it is increasingly inevitable, with leaders like Ursula von der Leyen arguing the bloc cannot move at the speed of its slowest members.
On the EU’s survival, Henley pointed to the pandemic and Ukraine war as examples of the 27 member states uniting when it matters. He acknowledged difficulties with countries like Hungary and Slovakia, which he described as under Russia’s “protection”, but noted that Brexit taught members that leaving is a bad idea. He also highlighted that US President Donald Trump’s interest in Greenland and President Emmanuel Macron’s warnings about China have focused minds on the benefits of unity. However, he cautioned that political changes, such as a potential far-right victory in France, could shift the EU’s direction.
Henley concluded that while the EU faces huge questions, it has shown creativity in dealing with differences, such as with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who could be out of power by April. The Q&A reflects ongoing uncertainty about Europe’s ability to get its act together.
