China is confronting a profound demographic challenge as its population continues to shrink, a situation starkly illustrated by newly released figures showing the lowest birth rate since the nation's founding in 1949. The data underscores the enduring and complex ripple effects of the decades-long one-child policy.
A Millennia-Old Struggle with Population
For centuries, a vast population has been a cornerstone of Chinese strength, yet managing it has perpetually caused anxiety. The nation's population now stands at 1.404 billion, a decline of three million from the previous year. This drop represents a significant shift for a country where, as Chairman Mao Zedong noted in 1957, the sheer number of people—then 600 million—was an inescapable fact of national life.
The challenge for Beijing remains balancing a citizenry that enhances national power while consuming enormous resources. However, a confluence of policy legacy, generational change, and modern lifestyles has officials deeply worried there will be insufficient young people to build the future they envision.
The Costly Legacy of the One-Child Policy
Instituted in 1980, the one-child policy was designed to curb rapid population growth during Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms. It restricted most couples to a single child, often enforcing compliance with harsh penalties. While it slowed growth, it created severe unintended consequences that now haunt policymakers.
The policy distorted natural demographics, leading to a disproportionate ageing society. As the state-run China Daily noted in 2024, China faces getting "old before becoming rich." The social impacts were profound:
- A cultural preference for sons resulted in the mistreatment and abandonment of baby girls, particularly in rural areas.
- In urban centres, it created a generation of so-called "little emperors," only children who became the sole focus of their families' resources and attention.
- Coupled with loosened internal migration rules, it led to millions of elderly parents living far from their only child, exacerbating loneliness and social fragmentation.
As the Brookings Institution concluded in a 2016 report, the policy will be remembered as "one of the costliest lessons of misguided public policymaking."
Reversing the Tide: From Restriction to Encouragement
The situation today would be unimaginable to urban Chinese in the 1980s: a government now actively urging families to have up to three children. President Xi Jinping has reframed the population as a source of strength, a "great wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people." This push is underscored by international rivalry, as India surpassed China in population in 2023, vying for leadership in the Global South.
Beijing has launched a multi-pronged campaign to reduce the friction of parenthood. The government has eliminated taxes on condoms, daycare centres, and even traditional matchmaking services. Systemically, the latest five-year plan aims to "encourage positive views on marriage and childbearing" through enhanced financial incentives and measures to slash the cost of raising children. State media has framed this as a plan to make childbirth "essentially free."
The core question remains whether deep-seated cultural traditions, where having offspring is a sacred duty, can be reignited after being suppressed by policy for decades. The nation, as Mao's 1957 essay "On the Correct Handling of Contradictions Among the People" suggested, must now navigate this profound internal contradiction—between its past policies and its future needs.
