Tens of thousands of A-level students in England face disappointment on results day next week, with research suggesting nearly 100,000 fewer As and A*s could be awarded as the government aims to return grades to pre-pandemic levels. Up to 50,000 candidates may miss out on top grades they might have expected last year, potentially affecting applications to competitive universities.
The sharp drop aligns with government plans to restore results to 2019 levels, after the pandemic led to inflated grades in 2020 and 2021 when teacher assessments replaced exams. According to the Centre for Education and Employment Research (CEER) at the University of Buckingham, the percentage of A*s must fall from 14.6% last year to 7.8%, meaning 59,000 fewer A*s and 36,000 fewer As.
CEER estimates that about 30,000 students will miss out on A* grades they could have expected last year, and nearly 50,000 will not achieve A*/A grades. England has taken the toughest line among UK nations; Wales and Northern Ireland have set grade boundaries midway between 2019 and last year's results, accounting for Covid disruption.
Schools minister Nick Gibb said results must return to pre-pandemic levels to ensure qualifications carry weight with employers and universities. He stated that a typical student in 2019 with the same ability and diligence would likely get the same grades in 2023. However, Prof Alan Smithers of CEER doubts the government will fully achieve its target, citing potential pain for students and differences across administrations.
Ofqual has built in additional protection this year, allowing grade boundaries to be adjusted if senior examiners find evidence of a drop in standards compared with 2019. A Department for Education spokesperson said national results are expected to be similar to pre-pandemic years, and the number of top grades does not affect university places.
