Islamic State affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa are poised for significant expansion following military victories, new alliances, and strategic shifts, according to analysts. The group's propaganda increasingly highlights the region as a new frontier, compensating for setbacks in the Middle East.
In Nigeria, Islamic State West Africa Province (Iswap) recently overran Boko Haram's stronghold in Sambisa forest, killing leader Abubakar Shekau and absorbing his followers and resources. New leader Abu Musab al-Barnawi has adopted a strategy of providing security and basic services, contrasting with Shekau's extremist approach. Al-Barnawi has allowed government documents, improved treatment of children, and limited raids for booty.
Analysts warn that Iswap's focus on governance and community co-option poses a major challenge to weak local authorities. Vincent Foucher of the French National Centre for Scientific Research noted that sub-Saharan Africa offers Isis significant control over territory with minimal resources. Western officials fear the group's discipline and firepower will make it formidable.
Isis-linked groups have expanded across the Sahel, from Nigeria to Libya and south to Benin and Ghana. In Niger, civilian militias have been targeted, with Isis claiming attacks that killed over 150 people. Rida Lyammouri of the Policy Centre for the New South observed that Isis has identified specific communities to entrench itself, using both cooperation and brutal violence against opposition.
