Iranian-designed Shahed drones launched from a shadow trawler could deliver a devastating strike on Portsmouth naval base, according to former defence minister Tobias Ellwood. He warned that such an attack would test UK resolve and push narratives to withdraw support for Ukraine.
Mini Pearl Harbor Threat
Mr Ellwood told Express.co.uk: “We have no air defence there. You could easily see Shahed drones – the Iranian-style ones that have already hit Akrotiri – being launched off a shadow trawler on the other side of the Isle of Wight, using GPS to glide straight in.” He expanded: “They come in racks of five, and they are small enough to fit inside a standard shipping container. You could easily sail a trawler from international waters... fire these things, and we wouldn't react in time because they would be flying low. They could smack straight into our ships in Portsmouth. Boom – that is our own mini Pearl Harbor.”
Russian Hand Behind Deniable Strike
Russia extensively uses these Iranian combat drones in Ukraine, and Mr Ellwood suggested Moscow would be the hidden hand behind a deniable strike on British waters. He said: “What they would do is try to persuade the British people that we should have nothing to do with Ukraine, that we should pull out, give it to Russia, and life will be quieter.” He stated objectives include sowing “political discord” and exploiting divisions: “Hoping to help figures like Nigel Farage get into power because they see that the mainstream parties aren't strong enough.”
Vulnerability and Procurement Failures
Mr Ellwood claimed Russia would strike now “because the longer they wait, the more time we have to develop the capabilities to defend ourselves. Right now, we are particularly vulnerable, so it makes sense for them to hit us early.” He further highlighted procurement failures, saying: “Our procurement process takes months, if not years... By that time, the technology has already moved on.”
Military Insiders and Book Warning
Mr Ellwood noted military insiders discuss these risks: “Senior politicians and ministers are briefed on this, but because there's no public clamour for defence spending, it creates a fundamental challenge.” In his 2026 book Ten Steps to Prevent World War 3, Mr Ellwood details new battlefields including grey-zone tactics and the need to spot vulnerabilities before they are exploited. The book warns of a complacent West sliding towards wider conflict and sets out steps to restore deterrence and resilience.
