More than 10,000 prisoners in England and Wales were released up to 70 days early under the previous government, as the new Justice Secretary prepares to announce further emergency measures to tackle the prison overcrowding crisis. Ministry of Justice figures show that 10,083 inmates were freed under the End of Custody Supervised Licence (ECSL) scheme between October 2023 and June 2024.
The scheme initially allowed release 18 days before the conditional date, later extended to 35 days in March and 70 days in May. On Friday, Shabana Mahmood, the Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor, will announce that low-risk prisoners will automatically be released after serving 40% of their sentence for the first time. This measure is expected to apply to offenders serving under four years, excluding those convicted of violent, sexual, or terrorism-related offences, and will start in September.
The move follows warnings from senior police and prison sources that the system was close to collapse, with only 708 places remaining in the adult male estate as of 8 July. Officials ideally require a buffer of 1,425 spaces to manage sudden influxes. The Metropolitan Police Commissioner, Mark Rowley, described the plan as “the least worst option,” warning that a system block would be “really dangerous for the public.”
However, campaigners have raised concerns about public safety. Farah Naz, whose niece Zara Aleena was murdered by a man released on licence, said releasing inmates after 40% “could be a dangerous gamble with public safety” if the probation service cannot cope. Harriet Wistrich of the Centre for Women’s Justice highlighted that early release could have “disastrous consequences” for those representing a danger or risk, particularly domestic abusers.
