China's trade surplus ballooned to an unprecedented $1.2 trillion in 2025, according to official government data released on Wednesday 14 January 2026. The record figure was fuelled by resilient export growth, which compensated for a significant slowdown in shipments to the United States.
Record-Breaking Trade Figures Detailed
Customs data revealed that China's total exports for 2025 grew by 5.5% to reach $3.77 trillion. In contrast, imports remained largely stagnant at $2.58 trillion, widening the surplus from the $992 billion recorded in 2024. The momentum continued through December, with exports climbing 6.6% year-on-year in dollar terms, outperforming both economists' forecasts and November's 5.9% increase. Imports in December also saw a stronger uptick of 5.7%.
Geographic Shift and Economic Drivers
A sharp decline in exports to the US, following the return of President Donald Trump and an escalation of trade tensions, has been largely offset by increased shipments to other regions. Markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe have absorbed the redirected goods. This export strength has been crucial in maintaining China's economic growth close to its official annual target of around 5%.
However, this surge has raised international concerns. "We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026," said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas. Yet, the flood of competitively priced Chinese exports has triggered alarm in some nations fearing damage to local industries. The head of the International Monetary Fund recently urged China to address economic imbalances by boosting domestic demand.
Outlook and Domestic Challenges
Looking ahead, economists anticipate exports will remain a key pillar of China's economy in 2026, albeit with moderated growth. Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis, forecasts export growth of about 3% this year, slightly down from 2025's 5%. He expects the trade surplus to stay above the $1 trillion mark.
Domestically, China faces headwinds that complicate a shift away from export reliance. A prolonged property sector downturn, stemming from a crackdown on excessive borrowing and developer defaults, continues to weigh on consumer confidence and domestic demand. This underscores the challenge of rebalancing the economy as advocated by global institutions.
