China's trade surplus ballooned by 20% in 2025 to $1.2tn, despite US tariffs, as exports expanded over 5% while imports remained flat. Sales to ASEAN countries rose over 13% and to the EU over 8%, according to Beijing data. The imbalance is strangling manufacturers from Europe to Asia and Latin America, with over 300 antidumping investigations since 2020 by low- and middle-income countries against Chinese exports.
Former IMF China division head Eswar Prassad of Cornell University warned: 'Forget Trump's tariffs. The real danger lies in China's trade surplus.' The wave of Chinese exports has put enormous stress on international economic institutions, and Beijing must reconsider mercantilistic policies that mop up global demand, undercutting other countries' prosperity.
The US turn against the global order did not happen in a vacuum. The 'China shock' after its 2001 WTO accession delivered a blow to US manufacturing, providing fertile ground for Trump's rise. However, America's exceptional fury arose largely because it failed to build social infrastructure to manage industrial disruptions, unlike other affluent countries.
China would be making a huge mistake if it concluded its policies had no part in global convulsions. Mexico imposed tariffs up to 50% on Chinese goods, India raised steel tariffs, and the EU now agrees with the US that the WTO no longer works. EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič called for a new system of global trade governance, possibly jettisoning the WTO's 'most favoured nation' rule.
