President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that grocery prices are falling, pointing to Walmart's Thanksgiving promotion as evidence. The retail giant announced a meal for 10 at under $4 per person, which Trump called 'the greatest' during a recent speech. The White House hailed it as proof that 'America is winning the war on high prices'.
However, economists caution that the picture is far more complex. Food prices remain volatile, and the cost of a Thanksgiving feast depends heavily on shopping habits. David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, noted that 'for some people, it may be cheaper than last year. For others, they may get sticker shock.'
Different analyses paint contrasting trends. A Wells Fargo report found a standard menu could be 2% to 3% cheaper with store-brand items. But a study by Groundwork Collaborative, the Century Foundation and the American Federation of Teachers estimated prices nearly 10% higher for name-brand products.
Turkey prices, a key holiday item, are expected to be similar to or lower than last year, despite higher wholesale costs. This is because retailers often use turkeys as 'loss leaders' to attract customers. Ricky Volpe, a professor at California Polytechnic State University, explained that 'there's no better way to advertise low prices than to set a really low price on whole turkeys.'
Walmart's Thanksgiving basket, which Trump cited, has changed from previous years. It now includes fewer name-brand items and smaller quantities, such as swapping a can of Ocean Spray cranberry sauce for fresh cranberries. These adjustments reflect ongoing shifts in food prices, partly due to Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which affect packaging costs.
