British shoppers have received a welcome pre-Christmas boost with new data showing a significant slowdown in shop price increases during November. The easing, partly driven by intense Black Friday competition, offers some relief for household budgets during the crucial festive trading period.
Inflation Data Shows Promising Slowdown
According to the latest figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and market researchers NIQ, overall shop prices in November were just 0.6 per cent higher than a year ago. This marks a notable deceleration from the 1 per cent increase recorded in October.
In a particularly encouraging sign for consumers, food inflation also lost pace. The annual rate slowed to 3 per cent last month, down from 3.7 per cent in October. The BRC attributed this moderation to widespread promotions, with price rises easing most noticeably in essential categories like dairy, fruit, bread, and cereals.
Retail Competition and Future Headwinds
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson highlighted the fierce competition among retailers. "Black Friday deals began earlier than normal as competition between retailers hit fever pitch," she said. With recent Budget uncertainty now past, the retail sector is hopeful that consumer confidence will rebound in the final weeks before Christmas.
"Retailers will continue doing everything they can to keep prices down and help customers’ money go further this Christmas," Dickinson added. However, she also issued a cautionary note for the year ahead, warning of potential headwinds. "Rising employment costs are likely to filter through to prices. This could shake already weak consumer confidence and present further challenges for consumers in the year ahead."
Mixed Picture and Retail Strategy
Despite the overall slowdown, inflation remained stubbornly high in some specific areas, notably for oils and fats as well as meat and fish. This indicates that cost pressures are not uniform across the grocery sector.
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NIQ, echoed the sentiment of cautious optimism. "It’s good news for shoppers that price increases are slowing but inflationary pressures still remain, in particular within food," he stated. He emphasised the competitive nature of the UK retail market, suggesting that retailers will need to keep any price increases minimal in the run-up to Christmas to entice spending.
The data suggests that the intense promotional activity around Black Friday 2025 has provided a tangible benefit for consumers, setting a more favourable tone for Christmas shopping compared to recent years. All eyes will now be on whether this trend sustains and translates into stronger retail sales during the peak festive season.
