Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, has stated that adding VAT to private school fees has not caused a mass exodus of pupils to the state sector, contrary to widespread speculation. The Labour government applied a 20% VAT to private school fees from the start of 2025, ending their previous exemption. Newly released admissions data for England shows no significant influx into state schools since the tax was introduced.
Phillipson dismisses critics
Phillipson said: "The predicted exodus from private schools simply hasn’t happened and today’s data proves it. Critics warned state schools would be swamped with new pupils. They were wrong. They said private schools would close en masse. They haven’t." She added that the government is "rebalancing the system to focus on the 94% of kids in state schools, a majority that has been sidelined for too long."
Admissions data analysis
The admissions data, the first since VAT was added, is based on applications to state schools made in October last year for places in the school year starting next September. Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt had predicted up to 90,000 children could move to the state sector, but Department for Education (DfE) figures show a decline in overall applications for primary and secondary places. Nearly 85% of families received their first choice of secondary school, higher than in 2025 and 2024.
Local authorities in central London with high proportions of privately educated children showed no signs of increased applications. Hammersmith and Fulham and Kensington and Chelsea both received fewer applications for September places compared to the previous two years. Islington saw a slight increase, but the share of families getting their first preference of secondary school dropped from 68% to 66%.
The DfE noted that 94% of secondary applicants and 98% of primary applicants in London received an offer from one of their six preferred schools, stating: "That is not a system under pressure." In Surrey, a likely hotspot for private school defections, secondary applications fell, while Kent saw a 2% increase.
Expert cautions
Experts cautioned that falling birthrates and post-Brexit population shifts may partly mask any impact of the VAT increase. The DfE’s 2026 school survey found that while the number of children in all schools fell by 1.2%, independent schools saw a 3.8% drop, a loss of 22,000 pupils compared to 2025.
The Independent Schools Council reported that its members have lost 30,000 pupils since VAT was introduced, though its membership includes schools in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, while DfE figures are for England alone and include many non-ISC private schools.
Private school numbers
The census recorded a continuing increase in the number of private schools operating in England, noted by Phillipson. The DfE census showed an increase of 41 private schools in 2026, but this was boosted by 88 more independent special schools opening, offsetting the 47 mainstream schools that closed.
The DfE said VAT on private school fees is raising more than initially forecast, now likely to bring in £1.8bn annually by 2029-30. The tax was a Labour manifesto pledge to fund hiring an additional 6,500 teachers by the end of this parliament. However, the National Audit Office recently cast doubt on the DfE’s ability to meet this recruitment target.
