For generations, Florida has been synonymous with affordable retirement, a sun-drenched paradise promising a comfortable life on a modest pension. That long-standing reputation is now under severe threat, as soaring costs push middle-class retirees out and dramatically slow the influx of new ones.
The End of an Affordable Era
The stark reversal was highlighted by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, which stated in early 2024: "The low cost of living that Florida used to boast has waned, and those who moved here in pursuit of more affordable living could be looking elsewhere." This marks a dramatic shift from the state's historic appeal, once advertised in a 1958 Virginia newspaper for its lack of income tax and homes costing 20-40% less than the national average.
Fast forward to 2026, and the landscape is unrecognisable. The pandemic-era migration boom, which saw over half a million people relocate to Florida between 2020 and 2022, supercharged demand. According to the American Institute for Economic Research, this influx caused home prices to surge by 51%, significantly above the 41% national average.
Sky-High Prices in Retirement Havens
The crisis is acutely felt in traditional retirement heartlands. Federal Housing Finance Agency data reveals that Florida's home prices rose more between 2000 and 2024 than in any other U.S. state. The trend is concentrated in areas popular with older residents.
Take Sumter County, home to the vast Villages retirement community, where the average resident is 68.4 years old. The median home price there is $446,381, over $35,000 higher than the national median of $410,800. This pattern is repeated across the state. Data from ATTOM Data Solutions and the National Association of Realtors shows that five of Florida's ten oldest counties have median home prices exceeding the national figure.
- Sumter: $446,381
- Sarasota: $444,503
- Martin: $455,732
- Collier: $612,299
- Manatee: $418,542
Statewide, Florida's median home price stood at $411,500 at the end of 2025, ranking 30th in the country. The Council for Community and Economic Research's Cost of Living Index placed Florida 31st nationally from July to September 2025.
The Middle-Class Retirement Exodus
The financial squeeze is directly impacting migration patterns. A Wall Street Journal study in January 2026, using census data, found a sharp decline in lower and middle-income retirees moving to the state. The net migration of households earning $75,000 or less fell by 44% from 2013 to 2023. For households headed by someone aged 55 to 64, the net migration rate dropped by 17%.
Where are these former and would-be Floridians going? Net migration data for 2023 shows the state lost the most households to North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama. These states now offer competitive tax benefits or a lower cost of living, eroding Florida's unique selling point of no state income tax.
The Chamber of Commerce noted this is a sustained trend, observed from 2018 to 2023, and warned of a continued outflow unless affordability is addressed. For the first time in decades, the Sunshine State's brightest selling point—an affordable, comfortable retirement—is clouding over, forcing a fundamental rethink for a generation of pensioners.
