SpaceX shares dropped below their initial public offering price for the first time on Wednesday, just over a month after the rockets-to-AI firm completed the biggest IPO ever and made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. The shares slid 1.5% to $134, falling below the $135 IPO price and well below last month's high that briefly propelled the company's market valuation above those of Silicon Valley giants Microsoft and Amazon.
Market Valuation Decline
If the decline sticks, it will leave investors who bought into SpaceX at the IPO price sitting on paper losses for the first time. It's the latest reminder that Wall Street's enthusiasm can cool quickly, even for a company whose giant ambitions and Musk backing briefly helped it fetch a valuation above $2.6tn last month, compared with $1.75tn on Wednesday afternoon.
Investor Concerns
The about-face in SpaceX reflects in part investor concern over debt-funded AI spending and what potential Federal Reserve rate hikes might do to stretched tech valuations. SpaceX turned to the bond market last month to raise $25bn, becoming the latest tech company to sell bonds to build out costly technology infrastructure whose return prospects are hotly debated on Wall Street.
According to Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, the stock's retreat "seems to be a combination of profit-taking, valuation reassessment and the unwinding of extremely bullish positioning following one of the most anticipated listings in recent years."
Critics and Catalysts
It is not uncommon for a stock to fall below the IPO price, especially during periods of broader market stress. Still, the drop could bolster critics who have argued that SpaceX's valuation was stretched, given that it lost $4.9bn last year and many of its ambitions are untested. Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers, noted: "There hasn't been anything lately to remind people of some of the catalysts for why they bought SpaceX. The fact that a stock has fallen a couple of dollars below its IPO price in itself is not a tragedy, but SpaceX is heavily watched and has an important role in investor psyche."
Index Inclusion and Future Events
The stock's addition to indexes such as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 did not reverse the retreat. SpaceX's shares have dropped 13% since they were included in the Nasdaq 100. Investor focus will shift to the company's first results after listing, expected in the first week of August. After the report, the first phase of the IPO lock-up period is set to expire, allowing eligible employees and some early shareholders to begin selling portions of their holdings, an event that analysts say could weigh further on the stock.
Investors are also closely watching the company's 13th Starship test flight, as the rocket's successful development is critical to lowering launch costs and enabling many of its most ambitious long-term projects, including orbital data centers and lunar missions. As one analyst remarked, "We're really on maybe 30 days or so into this experiment, still so very early. The big thing is Elon got his $85bn to take SpaceX to the next level of growth, which will take many years to see how that plays out. Not 30 days of trading."
